IN
EVERY revolution, there is a moment when the tide turns against the
regime. In Egypt it came on January 28th last year, when protesters
occupied Tahrir Square and torched the ruling-party headquarters. In
Libya it happened on August 20th last year, when people in Tripoli rose
against Qaddafi. In Syria it may have happened on July 18th, when a bomb
struck at the heart of Syria’s military command.
If the attack
shifts the balance of power decisively against President Bashar Assad,
that is greatly to be welcomed. But a year or so after their
revolutions, both Egypt and Libya
remain
unstable; and Syria, which borders Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and
Turkey, is an exceptionally complex and pivotal part of the Middle East.
Those who wish Syrians well now need to focus not just on how to bring
about Mr Assad’s swift fall from power, but also on how to spare the
post-Assad Syria from murder and chaos and how to prevent violence from
spreading across a combustible region.
Just go
The bombing of the national security headquarters in Damascus is likely to weaken the regime in a number of ways (see
article). It
wounded many and killed the defence minister and a former military
chief. Worse still for the president was the death of Assef Shawkat, his
brother-in-law and one of the regime’s most powerful figures. Mr Assad
rapidly
filled
their positions, but in a country governed by a clique held together by
personal loyalty, the dead men will not easily be replaced.
That the bombing seems to have been an inside
job, requiring intelligence and access deep inside the regime, will also damage the command structure of the armed forces and the
security services.
The loyalty of the army—in which the officers are largely from Mr
Assad’s Alawite sect and the ranks are mostly Sunni—was anyway one of
the regime’s weaknesses. A blast from a huge bomb somehow smuggled into
the inner sanctum will sow mistrust and suspicion at all levels.
The
attack is just the latest blow to Mr Assad: all over the country,
turmoil is growing. The rate of killing is now roughly ten times greater
than in Afghanistan. Swathes of the west and north-west have become
no-go areas for government forces, who are being killed in greater
numbers than even two months ago. The pace of defections is increasing: a
score of generals have deserted.
Especially in the borderlands,
disaffection and dissent are palpable. Homs and Hama, the country’s
third- and fourth-biggest cities, are hostile to Mr Assad. Damascus and
Aleppo, the two main cities, have been less torrid because quite a lot
of their people have taken the view that Mr Assad is a better guarantor
of stability than the alternative. Now that rebel fighters have entered
the city, that no longer looks clear.
The attack will also be
changing calculations abroad. For the past few months, diplomacy has
focused on a plan, overseen by Kofi Annan, a former UN
secretary-general, to negotiate an effective ceasefire under a team of
monitors
and to set up an interim unity government. But over the past few weeks
the Annan plan, along with many thousands of Syrians, has died. The
rebels, who can now smell victory, will not agree to a ceasefire. The
monitors’ activities have been suspended because of the fighting. The
country is ravaged by civil war, so there is no prospect of putting
together a unity government. After this week’s bomb the danger is that a
desperate Mr Assad will resort to ever more extreme tactics—flattening
whole districts in Damascus with heavy artillery, say, or seeking to
provoke a regional war, or even murdering his own people with chemical
weapons.
The enormity of that prospect makes it worth trying yet
again to persuade Mr Assad to face up to the hopelessness of his
position and to accept that flight from Syria is now his best option.
The threat of international justice—especially warnings about his pariah
status if he uses chemical weapons—might just have some force. But only
Russia has much influence over him. The desire to protect an old ally,
fear of its own restive Muslims and hostility to Western calls for
regime change have led Russia to shelter Mr Assad’s regime from
diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions.
As it seems
ever-likelier that Mr Assad will go, so the chances that Russia will
abandon him in return for a role in a post-Assad Syria grow. But in the
absence of a decisive diplomatic shift in the right direction, Western
governments should try to give the military effort against Mr Assad a
further push. The swiftest way of doing that would be to give aid—such
as money and communications gear—to the main rebel force, the Free
Syrian Army. It is already getting arms and cash from Qatar and Saudi
Arabia with Turkish co-operation, but it needs more help; for, despite
its recent setbacks, Mr Assad’s regime is heavily armed with the best
Russian kit.
The FSA is no band of angels. Some of its weapons
will doubtless fall into the wrong hands, possibly including groups of
jihadists. Flooding Syria with arms will make the country harder to
govern once Mr Assad has gone. But backing the FSA is probably the
quickest way to prise Mr Assad from power.
What comes after
Mr
Assad may hang on for months, or the bombing may tip the regime into a
swift decline. Either way, now is the time to start preparing for the
day when Syria is at last rid of him.
Syria after Mr Assad will be
a danger to its own people and its neighbours. Sectarian bloodletting
is one risk, loose chemical weapons another, tides of refugees a third.
Syria could become the focus of rivalry between Iran, Turkey and the
Arab world. Violence could suck in Israel or spill over into Lebanon.
The
world cannot eliminate these dangers, but it can mitigate them. Money
and planning are essential to help found a new government. Regional
diplomacy, with Turkey and the Arab League to the fore, will be needed
to steady nerves. Peace-keepers and monitors may have a part. This calls
above all for presidential diplomacy from America. In election season
Barack Obama’s thoughts may be elsewhere; but this dangerous place needs
some attention.
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