Biodun.BBC: EU leaders

Monday, January 7, 2019

ANALYSIS: What next for Brexit? Three main scenarios

Date created : 07/01/2019 - 11:36 GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME

May aborted a vote on the deal set for last week because of its certain defeat May aborted a vote on the deal set for last week because of its certain defeat AFP/File

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by Emily Straton and Biodun Iginla, France24 News Analysts, London

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a dwindling number of options over Brexit ahead of a crucial vote in parliament later this month on the deal that she has struck with EU leaders.

Despite May's promise to seek "legal assurances" from her EU counterparts over contentious parts of the deal, little appears to have changed since she postponed a parliamentary vote on the agreement last month because of its certain defeat.

Here are the three main scenarios facing Britain while the clock ticks down to March 29, 2019 -- the day it is scheduled to depart the European Union after 46 years:

- Deal -

This is the Brexit that the British government and EU leaders want -- and one which many MPs in the British parliament object to.

The deal has been rejected by some of May's Conservatives as well as the opposition Labour and Liberal Democract parties for either keeping Britain tied too closely or too remotely to the European Union.

May promised lawmakers she would wring concessions from Brussels but apparently failed to do so at a summit in December.

She has since spoken to EU leaders including EU President Donald Tusk and European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker but appears to have little to show for it.

May's government intends to reintroduce the very same draft for a vote in the week of January 14.

It will hope that fear of the chaos that a no-deal exit might bring will force lawmakers to put aside their reservations.

If it loses the vote, the government has hinted it might simply reintroduce slightly tweaked verisions of the same deal until parliament accepts it.

- No-deal -

This is billed as the doomsday scenario that threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the European Union's economic growth.

It is the default option if the British parliament votes against the deal and there are no other solutions.

May's agreement was meant to keep trade rules between the world's fifth-biggest economy and largest single market almost unchanged for a transition period running to the end of 2020.

A sudden shift to different standards would impact almost every economic sector -- and possibly see the costs of everyday products in Britain soar.

Both sides have been forced to ramp up their preparations for a disorderly Brexit over the past few weeks.

UK businesses are stockpiling goods while Brussels is trying to find a way to maintain free-flowing operations involving London's massive financial services hub.

- Second referendum -

EU supporters have been calling for another vote ever since the first one backed Leave by a 52 to 48 percent in June 2016.

There is no law keeping Britain from doing it all over again, but many question whether this would be democratic -- and why a second attempt should take precedence over the first.

It also threatens to be just as divisive with opinion polls showing the country still split over the issue.

Calls for another vote have ramped up over the last few months.

Proponents argue that what the Brexit people were promised looks nothing like the deal on offer and that Britons never backed a no-deal scenario.

But May has warned it "would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics."

It is also unclear what options to give people in a second ballot -- and what happens if Brexit wins again.

by Emily Straton and Biodun Iginla, BBC News, London. Disclosure: Emily Straton and Biodun Iginla dated when Biodun Iginla was flitting between New York and London.

Holding another referendum on the EU would "break faith with the British people", Theresa May will warn MPs.

Former PMs John Major and Tony Blair are among those urging a new referendum if MPs cannot agree on a way forward.

But the prime minister will argue that it would do "irreparable damage to the integrity our politics" and would "likely leave us no further forward".

Last week she called off a Commons vote on her Brexit deal, admitting it was likely to be heavily rejected.

Mr Blair said last week that while he admired Mrs May's determination to get her deal through, with so many MPs opposed to it there was "literally no point in carrying on digging".

He said after 30 months of negotiation, and with the government in "a mess", giving the final say to the people would become the "logical" outcome if every other option were to be exhausted.

But Mrs May will tell MPs on Monday: "Let us not break faith with the British people by trying to stage another referendum.

"Another vote which would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy, that our democracy does not deliver.

"Another vote which would likely leave us no further forward than the last.

"And another vote which would further divide our country at the very moment we should be working to unite it."

On Sunday she said Mr Blair's backing for another referendum was "an insult to the office he once held" and risked undermining Brexit negotiations.

Meanwhile, writing in his Daily Telegraph column, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said a second referendum would "provoke instant, deep and ineradicable feelings of betrayal".

The Brexiteer said the idea a fresh poll would be held was "sickening".

Media captionConfused by Brexit jargon? Reality Check unpacks the basics.

The prime minister is due to update MPs on last week's European Council summit, where she made an appeal to EU leaders to help get the deal "over the line".

She went to Brussels at the end of a week in which she delayed the Commons vote on her Brexit deal, having been warned it would be rejected by a significant margin, and then went on to survive a vote of no confidence in her leadership by Conservative MPs by 200 votes to 117.

She had been seeking legal assurances over the controversial "backstop" plan to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, if no trade deal is reached.

But EU leaders told her the negotiated withdrawal agreement was "not open for renegotiation", although some clarification was possible.

'Dead in the water'

Mrs May said on Friday that her talks with EU leaders had shown that "further clarification and discussion" was possible and that the UK would be "working expeditiously over the coming days to seek those further assurances I believe MPs will need".

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said her deal was now "dead in the water" and the prime minister had "utterly failed in her attempts to deliver any meaningful changes".

Labour says it will put pressure on her to hold the vote on it this week. The government says the vote will now be held before 21 January.

Media captionLiam Fox: 'How do we tell the SNP that they can't have another referendum on independence?'

On Sunday, senior Tory Brexiteer Liam Fox told the BBC that unless MPs' concerns were addressed, the deal was unlikely to get through the Commons.

If it could not, he suggested: "Parliament would have to decide on the alternatives." He suggested giving MPs a free vote could be one option.

There were reports in the Sunday newspapers that two of Mrs May's key allies were planning for another referendum, in the event that her deal cannot get MPs' backing.

Both men - Downing Street chief of staff Gavin Barwell and Mrs May's de facto deputy David Lidington - distanced themselves from the reports.

Mr Barwell tweeted: "Happy to confirm I am not planning a 2nd referendum with political opponents (or anyone else to anticipate the next question."