Biodun.BBC: Caracas

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Saturday, March 23, 2019

ANALYSIS: What has Guaido achieved as Venezuela's US-backed 'interim leader?'

Date created : 23/03/2019 - 23:45 GMT/ZULU

Guaido has a 61 percent approval rating among Venezuelans, and backing from 50 countries including, crucially, the US AFP/File

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Caracas

by Renee Celeste and Biodun Iginla, France24 News Analysts

Two months have now passed since Juan Guaido asserted himself as Venezuela's interim president. Domestically, he has been unable to shake President Nicolas Maduro from power. But internationally, with US backing, he's making some headway.

Guaido, the 35-year-old head of the opposition-run parliament, is riding on a wave of popular support as he tours the country on what he calls "Operation Freedom."

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But there is no sign yet of him making good on his vow to "very soon" march up to the presidential Miraflores Palace in Caracas and take over.

On Saturday, he was set to address a crowd in the northeastern city of Barcelona, after saying a day earlier that "we are calling for the phase of maximum public pressure" on the regime to go.

Maduro, 56, has repeated that he is going nowhere. He retains the loyalty of military chiefs and police with his hands on the levers of power: the state-run oil company PDVSA, the courts, his own parallel legislature and state media.

The president's supporters held their own counter-demonstration Saturday in the capital.

On Thursday, his security forces arrested Guaido's chief of staff, Roberto Marrero, on "terrorism" accusations, triggering an outcry from the European Union, the United States and other Latin American nations.

But Maduro has been careful to leave Guaido himself alone, heeding US warnings of "a significant response" were the opposition figurehead to be arrested.

- Public support for Guaido -

Both Guaido and Maduro claim to be constitutionally legitimate. Guaido declared himself interim president on January 23, saying Maduro's re-election last year was invalid because opposition figures were barred from running and boycotted the ballot.

Inside Venezuela, Guaido has a 61 percent approval rating among the public, according to the polling firm Datanalisis. Maduro has only 14 percent.

But it's abroad that Guaido's backing is more consequential. More than 50 countries recognize him as interim president, including, crucially, the United States and major EU and Latin American nations.

Maduro, on the other hand, has China, Cuba, Iran and Russia on his side. The latter two are Venezuela's biggest creditors, getting paid in the dwindling amounts of crude being exported.

The dueling support between the US and China spilled over Friday when the Inter-American Development Bank, which provides funding in Latin America, pulled its annual meeting out of China after Beijing refused to issue a visa to Guaido's representative.

Washington is reportedly trying to have Guaido's envoys replace Maduro's officials on other international bodies, such as the UN Disarmament Conference in Geneva, where Venezuela is due to take over the rotating presidency.

US President Donald Trump's government has also ratcheted up sanctions on Venezuela, most recently as Friday in reaction to Marrero's arrest, and has frozen state accounts and assets on US territory.

On April 28, America is due to impose a ban on importing Venezuelan crude.

That will be a major blow, as the US is historically Venezuela's biggest oil customer. But southern US oil refiners are also dependent on the heavy grade, high sulfur variety of oil that Venezuela produces.

Trump has reiterated that "all options" -- including, it is inferred, military action -- are on the table for Venezuela. However, US troops were not used last month in a foiled attempt by Guaido supporters to truck US aid in Colombia over the border into Venezuela.

- Military's 'absolute loyalty' -

Despite being weakened by Guaido's rise, Maduro "has managed to maintain surprising cohesion in such an adverse scenario," analyst Mariano de Alba told us at France24.

The military, which controls politics and the economy, has shown "absolute loyalty," ignoring calls by Washington and Guaido to abandon Maduro in return for amnesty, he noted.

While hundreds of soldiers have defected, the vast majority have been low-ranking troops.

The head of the Datanalisis firm, Luis Vicente Leon, said the core of the military has not broken ranks "because there has been no credible offer which the military elite could trust" and troops fear being trashed in any change of regime.

He added that the opposition likely expected that only a US invasion would eject Maduro and thus it would reject any possible negotiations in the hope of "provoking a fracture."

Meanwhile, Venezuela's economy swirls deeper down the drain.

Inflation is forecast by the IMF to top 10,000,000 percent this year. Once oil shipments to the US cease altogether, the country's access to hard currency will be severely curtailed.

"The economic situation is going to worsen a lot more, and the population will experience a substantial deterioration of quality of life," de Alba warned. He said increased repression by Maduro's regime would follow.

Saturday, March 9, 2019

BREAKING AND UPDATE: Venezuela: Thousands join rival rallies as power cuts continue

Media captionProtesters tried to push back lines of riot police

by Renee Celeste and Biodun Iginla, BBC News, Caracas

Rival demonstrations are taking place in Venezuela in response to calls by opposition leader Juan Guaidó and President Nicolás Maduro.

In the capital Caracas, some supporters of Mr Guaidó scuffled with police and were driven back with pepper spray.

Mr Guaidó declared himself interim president on 23 January and has been at loggerheads with Mr Maduro ever since.

Saturday's protests follow widespread power cuts that have affected much of Venezuela since Thursday.

Mr Guaidó, who leads the opposition-controlled National Assembly, has been recognised as interim president by more than 50 countries. However, Mr Maduro retains the support of the military and close allies including Russia and China.

What is the latest?

On Saturday, police were out in force where the opposition march was taking place in Caracas.

Some protesters pushed against police in riot gear shouting "murderers" and the officers responded by firing pepper spray at them.

Addressing the rally later, Mr Guaidó announced he would embark on a tour of the country and summon all his supporters to attend a mass protest in Caracas "very soon".

"We are going to come, all of Venezuela to Caracas, because we need all of them united," he said.

Using a megaphone to be heard above the chanting crowd, he called on his followers to remain "united and mobilised... in the streets".

Juan Guaidó speaks during a rally in Caracas on March 9, 2019. — Image captionJuan Guaidó told supporters to keep up pressure on the government

In a defiant tweet early on Saturday, President Maduro vowed to battle the "brutal aggression against our people", adding: "We will never surrender."

Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro demonstrate in Caracas on March 9, 2019 — Image captionSupporters of President Nicolás Maduro also made themselves heard in Caracas

What's the background?

President Maduro has accused Mr Guaidó of trying to mount a coup against him with the help of "US imperialists".

Mr Maduro took over the presidency when his late mentor Hugo Chavez died in 2013. In recent years Venezuela has experienced economic collapse, with severe food shortages and inflation reaching at least 800,000% last year.

The Maduro government is becoming increasingly isolated as more and more countries blame it for the economic crisis, which has prompted more than three million people to leave Venezuela.

What happened with the power cuts?

The widespread power cuts have reportedly been caused by problems at the Guri hydroelectric plant in Bolivar state - one of the largest such facilities in Latin America.

A fresh blackout struck on Saturday, El Nacional newspaper reported, cutting power to many areas where it had previously been restored.

In Caracas, traffic lights in some areas were back in action but the city's metro remained closed, reports said.

Venezuela depends on its vast hydroelectric infrastructure, rather than its oil reserves, for its domestic electricity supply. But decades of underinvestment have damaged the major dams, and sporadic blackouts are commonplace.

Media captionMuch of the country, including Caracas, was plunged into darkness

Mr Maduro accused the opposition of sabotage while his deputy, Delcy Rodriguez, condemned what she called an "imperial electrical war".

Mr Guaidó hit back, urging Venezuelans to demonstrate on Saturday "against the usurping, corrupt and incompetent regime that has put our country in the dark".

He said the blackout was the result of years of under-investment and told a gathering marking International Women's Day that it could not be normal that "50% of hospitals in the country don't have an electric plant".

On Friday, some hospitals saw chaotic scenes as relatives tried to move patients in the dark to other medical facilities with emergency power generators.

In Caracas's University Hospital, 25-year-old patient Marielsi Aray died after her respirator stopped working.

"The doctors tried to help her by pumping manually, they did everything they could, but with no electricity, what were they to do?" said her uncle Jose Lugo.

Generators at a Caracas children's hospital failed, with staff reportedly working overnight using their mobile phones for light.