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Tuesday, September 10, 2019

ANALYSIS: For Bolton, a rising number of disagreements with Trump

Issued on: 11/09/2019 - 05:15 GMT/ZULU

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Washington

by Suzanne Gould and Biodun Iginla, France24 News Analysts

John Bolton's departure as President Donald Trump's national security advisor comes after a rising number of rifts in which the arch-hawk was clearly at odds with his boss.

While Trump is accustomed to aides who race to accommodate every sudden policy turn, Bolton came with decades of experience in Washington and had little to lose by leaving his job.

Here are some of the key areas of disagreement:

- Afghanistan -

Trump dropped a bombshell on Saturday by saying that had invited leaders of the Taliban to Camp David, the presidential retreat, to discuss a deal on which the United States would withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan.

Such top-level negotiations would be anathema to Bolton, a strong proponent of deploying military force in both Afghanistan and Iraq under former president George W. Bush and a lifelong critic of concessions to adversaries.

The Washington Post reported that tensions had risen to the point that Zalmay Khalilzad, the US negotiator with the Taliban and another Bush veteran, refused to share his draft deal with Bolton for fear he would scuttle it.

Trump ultimately said he canceled the Taliban meeting, citing an attack that killed a US soldier, and said the talks were dead.

- Iran -

Bolton has long been a vociferous hawk on Iran close to its militant exiled opposition. In 2015, Bolton wrote an opinion piece in The New York Times bluntly headlined, "To Stop Iran's Bomb, Bomb Iran."

Shortly after Bolton took office, Trump walked away from a nuclear deal negotiated under his predecessor Barack Obama and slapped punishing sanctions, although Bolton stopped short of saying the United States was seeking regime change.

But Trump has increasingly said that he is open to diplomacy.

Trump appeared supportive of a French proposal to provide Iran an economic credit line and said that he is willing to meet President Hassan Rouhani without preconditions.

- North Korea -

Bolton is also well-known for his hard line on North Korea. Shortly before his appointment, he wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the United States would be justified in waging a pre-emptive strike on the country.

His criticism of the totalitarian state goes far back, with North Korea in 2003 calling him "human scum" after Bolton, than a State Department official, called then leader Kim Jong Il a "tyrannical dictator."

Bolton nonetheless joined Trump in two landmark summits with Kim in Singapore and then Hanoi, where he urged Trump not to agree to a deal without further commitments by Pyongyang.

By the time Trump arranged an impromptu third summit in June the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea, Bolton was spotted a safe distance away in Mongolia.

- Venezuela -

Bolton has championed one of Trump's biggest foreign policy pushes, seeking to topple Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a leftist who presides over a crumbling economy.

But Bolton made his exit before Maduro, who remains in power and enjoys support of the military more than half a year after the United States and other major Western and Latin American powers declared him illegitimate.

Trump has been speaking less about Venezuela and, according to multiple reports, he chided Bolton in private for overselling the ease with which opposition leader Juan Guaido could take over.

Saturday, July 27, 2019

BREAKING: U.S. Marines 'likely' to enter Venezuela, says socialist party No. 2

July 28, 2019 08H:29 GMT/ZULU

by Renee Celeste and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and Reuters, CARACAS

CARACAS - Venezuelan Socialist Party Vice President Diosdado Cabello on Saturday predicted U.S. Marines will “likely” enter the South American country, speaking a week after a confrontation between aircraft belonging to the two countries’ armed forces.

FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's National Constituent Assembly President Diosdado Cabello takes part in a rally in support of President Nicolas Maduro's government and the Sao Paulo forum in Caracas, Venezuela, July 27, 2019. REUTERS/Manaure Quintero/File Photo

“We are few, a small country, we are very humble, and here it is likely that the U.S. Marines enter. It is likely that they enter,” Cabello told the Sao Paulo Forum, a gathering of leftist politicians and activists from across Latin America, without citing evidence.

“Their problem will be getting out of Venezuela.”

U.S.-Venezuela tensions have escalated this year since Juan Guaido, leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, invoked the constitution to assume an interim presidency in January, arguing socialist President Nicolas Maduro’s 2018 re-election was illegitimate.

The United States and most Western democracies have recognized Guaido as the rightful leader. The Trump administration has said it prefers to continue to use sanctions and diplomacy to pressure Maduro to step down, but has not ruled out military action as an option.

Cabello presides over the Constituent Assembly, a legislative superbody loyal to Maduro which is not recognized by the opposition. He is widely viewed as the second most powerful official in Venezuela’s government, after Maduro.

The U.S. military accused a Venezuelan fighter aircraft of “aggressively” shadowing a U.S. Navy plane in international airspace over the Caribbean Sea on July 19. Venezuela’s government said the “reconnaissance and intelligence aircraft” had entered its airspace.

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Cabello’s remarks.

The National Assembly this week approved Venezuela’s reentry into a regional defense treaty the country left in 2013. Opposition hardliners had pressured Guaido to re-join the treaty as a precursor to requesting foreign military assistance to oust Maduro, but Guaido has warned it was no “magic solution.”

Maduro retains control of state functions and calls Guaido a U.S. puppet seeking to oust him in a coup.

On Saturday, Maduro called the decision to rejoin the treaty “illegal” and “treasonous.” Venezuela’s Supreme Court on Friday ruled the reincorporation was “null” and that efforts to invoke the treaty would be considered a “hostile act.”

Friday, May 17, 2019

Maduro government welcomes Norway 'dialogue' efforts

Date created : 18/05/2019 - 03:35 GMT/ZULU

The government of President Nicolas Maduro expressed gratitude to Norway and its support for "dialogue," after Maduro said Communications Minister Jorge Rodriguez was "on a very important mission for peace" in Europe Venezuelan Presidency/AFP

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Caracas

by Renee Celeste and Biodun Iginla, France24

The government of President Nicolas Maduro on Friday thanked Norway for its mediation efforts to build a "dialogue" with the Venezuelan opposition after both sides sent delegations to Oslo.

"President Nicolas Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution express their gratitude to Norway and their support for dialogue for peace and sovereignty," Venezuela's Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza tweeted.

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It was the first official confirmation from Caracas of its involvement in what Norway referred to as exploratory discussions in Oslo.

The mediation bid comes after a months-long power struggle between National Assembly leader Juan Guaido and the socialist president, with sometimes deadly street clashes.

Maduro on Thursday made no direct reference to the meetings, but said Communications Minister Jorge Rodriguez was "on a very important mission for peace in the country... in Europe".

So far details of the exact process underway in Oslo have been scant, but US-backed opposition leader Guaido -- recognized as interim president by dozens of countries -- denied on Thursday that any direct negotiations had taken place.

Norway's foreign ministry said in a statement it had had "preliminary contacts with representatives of the main political actors of Venezuela."

These were "part of an exploratory phase, with the aim of contributing to finding a solution to the situation in the country."

Rodriguez and Miranda state governor Hector Rodriguez represented the regime in the discussions, according to media reports.

The opposition said it was being represented by National Assembly vice president Stalin Gonzalez and former lawmaker Gerardo Blyde.

Maduro has been shunned by much of the international community for presiding over elections widely-dismissed as a sham and the oil-rich Latin American country's economic collapse as well as for brutally suppressing dissent.

Shortages of basic goods have forced millions to flee Venezuela.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

ANALYSIS: What has Guaido achieved as Venezuela's US-backed 'interim leader?'

Date created : 23/03/2019 - 23:45 GMT/ZULU

Guaido has a 61 percent approval rating among Venezuelans, and backing from 50 countries including, crucially, the US AFP/File

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Caracas

by Renee Celeste and Biodun Iginla, France24 News Analysts

Two months have now passed since Juan Guaido asserted himself as Venezuela's interim president. Domestically, he has been unable to shake President Nicolas Maduro from power. But internationally, with US backing, he's making some headway.

Guaido, the 35-year-old head of the opposition-run parliament, is riding on a wave of popular support as he tours the country on what he calls "Operation Freedom."

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But there is no sign yet of him making good on his vow to "very soon" march up to the presidential Miraflores Palace in Caracas and take over.

On Saturday, he was set to address a crowd in the northeastern city of Barcelona, after saying a day earlier that "we are calling for the phase of maximum public pressure" on the regime to go.

Maduro, 56, has repeated that he is going nowhere. He retains the loyalty of military chiefs and police with his hands on the levers of power: the state-run oil company PDVSA, the courts, his own parallel legislature and state media.

The president's supporters held their own counter-demonstration Saturday in the capital.

On Thursday, his security forces arrested Guaido's chief of staff, Roberto Marrero, on "terrorism" accusations, triggering an outcry from the European Union, the United States and other Latin American nations.

But Maduro has been careful to leave Guaido himself alone, heeding US warnings of "a significant response" were the opposition figurehead to be arrested.

- Public support for Guaido -

Both Guaido and Maduro claim to be constitutionally legitimate. Guaido declared himself interim president on January 23, saying Maduro's re-election last year was invalid because opposition figures were barred from running and boycotted the ballot.

Inside Venezuela, Guaido has a 61 percent approval rating among the public, according to the polling firm Datanalisis. Maduro has only 14 percent.

But it's abroad that Guaido's backing is more consequential. More than 50 countries recognize him as interim president, including, crucially, the United States and major EU and Latin American nations.

Maduro, on the other hand, has China, Cuba, Iran and Russia on his side. The latter two are Venezuela's biggest creditors, getting paid in the dwindling amounts of crude being exported.

The dueling support between the US and China spilled over Friday when the Inter-American Development Bank, which provides funding in Latin America, pulled its annual meeting out of China after Beijing refused to issue a visa to Guaido's representative.

Washington is reportedly trying to have Guaido's envoys replace Maduro's officials on other international bodies, such as the UN Disarmament Conference in Geneva, where Venezuela is due to take over the rotating presidency.

US President Donald Trump's government has also ratcheted up sanctions on Venezuela, most recently as Friday in reaction to Marrero's arrest, and has frozen state accounts and assets on US territory.

On April 28, America is due to impose a ban on importing Venezuelan crude.

That will be a major blow, as the US is historically Venezuela's biggest oil customer. But southern US oil refiners are also dependent on the heavy grade, high sulfur variety of oil that Venezuela produces.

Trump has reiterated that "all options" -- including, it is inferred, military action -- are on the table for Venezuela. However, US troops were not used last month in a foiled attempt by Guaido supporters to truck US aid in Colombia over the border into Venezuela.

- Military's 'absolute loyalty' -

Despite being weakened by Guaido's rise, Maduro "has managed to maintain surprising cohesion in such an adverse scenario," analyst Mariano de Alba told us at France24.

The military, which controls politics and the economy, has shown "absolute loyalty," ignoring calls by Washington and Guaido to abandon Maduro in return for amnesty, he noted.

While hundreds of soldiers have defected, the vast majority have been low-ranking troops.

The head of the Datanalisis firm, Luis Vicente Leon, said the core of the military has not broken ranks "because there has been no credible offer which the military elite could trust" and troops fear being trashed in any change of regime.

He added that the opposition likely expected that only a US invasion would eject Maduro and thus it would reject any possible negotiations in the hope of "provoking a fracture."

Meanwhile, Venezuela's economy swirls deeper down the drain.

Inflation is forecast by the IMF to top 10,000,000 percent this year. Once oil shipments to the US cease altogether, the country's access to hard currency will be severely curtailed.

"The economic situation is going to worsen a lot more, and the population will experience a substantial deterioration of quality of life," de Alba warned. He said increased repression by Maduro's regime would follow.