Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Biodun Iginla, BBC News
Showing posts with label Catalonia crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Catalonia crisis. Show all posts

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Catalonia: Secessionism in Europe--analysis

by Elodie Bagnol and Biodun Iginla, Political News Analysts, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Barcelona

Catalonia’s parliament declares independence; Spain imposes direct rule

Mutual mistrust between the two administrations scuppered a deal to avoid a head-on clash
UPDATE October 28th 20:00 GMT: This story has been updated to reflect news.

IT WAS political theatre—epic for some, farce for others and tragic for many more. By 70 votes out of 135, and with the opposition having walked out, the Catalan parliament in Barcelona voted yesterday, October 27th, to declare independence and constitute Catalonia as a republic. Minutes later in Madrid, the Senate overwhelmingly approved the government’s request to exercise its constitutional power to intervene in Catalonia. Mariano Rajoy, Spain's prime minister, announced the immediate dismissal of the Catalan government and parliament, and called a fresh regional election for December 21st.
Until almost the last minute it appeared that this head-on clash could be avoided. On October 26th officials in Madrid and Barcelona had discussed a deal whereby, if Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan president, himself called a fresh election, the government would suspend its plans for direct rule. Amid much confusion, the deal was aborted because of the mistrust between the two administrations and because Mr Puigdemont apparently feared being denounced as a traitor by the independence movement that he leads.

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“Today the parliament took a long-awaited and struggled-for step,” Mr Puigdemont said after the independence vote. But it is purely symbolic: it will be declared void by Spain’s Constitutional Tribunal and no European government will recognise Catalonia as an independent state. “For the European Union nothing changes,” said Donald Tusk, its president. “Spain is our only interlocutor”. The narrow secessionist majority in the Catalan parliament opted to cast secret ballots, because they fear the legal consequences of breaching the constitution.
The Senate duly approved Mr Rajoy’s request, backed by the opposition Socialists, to apply Article 155 of the constitution in Catalonia. Never used before, this grants the government wide powers to compel a region to obey the constitution. Mr Rajoy justified this “exceptional decision” by referring to the Catalan administration’s “continued process of anti-democratic decisions, against the law and Spanish and European values”.
Apart from the dismissal of Mr Puigdemont's executive, Mr Rajoy announced the shutting down of the Catalan government's offices abroad. The government is also likely to replace the commanders of the Catalan police force, and take over the Catalan government's finances and IT centre. At the urging of the opposition Socialists, the government has dropped the idea of taking the public broadcasters in Catalonia. The dissolution of the Catalan parliament and the swift calling of a new election came as a surprise (Mr Rajoy had earlier talked of an election "within six months"). It suggests that he does not want direct rule to become the subject of a lengthy conflict.
Even so, it was unclear whether the Catalan civil service will accept the government's orders. Mr Rajoy is likely to face civil disobedience and strikes, especially if prosecutors opt to charge Mr Puigdemont and his colleagues with rebellion, which carries up to 30 years in jail. Already two leaders of the independence movement have been detained on suspicion of sedition for organising a demonstration in Barcelona last month that hindered a police raid against organisers of an unauthorised independence referendum on October 1st.
Mr Puigdemont claims a mandate from that referendum, in which Catalan officials say some 43% of the electorate voted, 90% of them for independence. But they face some unpleasant realities: since October 1st, more than 1,500 companies, including almost all the big ones, have moved their domicile outside the region, and tourist bookings have dipped.
The secessionists have brought Spain to a deadlock. Mr Rajoy has agreed to a Socialist proposal to set up a congressional committee to discuss constitutional reform. If there is a solution to the country’s ills, that is where it lies. But first he must win his trial of strength in Catalonia.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Catalonia crisis: Spain moves to suspend autonomy


  • October 19, 2017  14H:23  GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME 
  • From the sectionEurope
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Pro-independence rally - 17 OctoberImage copyrightAFP
Image captionThere are fears that the latest moves could lead to unrest in Catalonia
by Elodie Bagnol and Biodun Iginla, BBC News, Madrid
Spain is to start suspending Catalonia's autonomy from Saturday, as the region's leader threatens to declare independence.
The government said ministers would meet to activate Article 155 of the constitution, allowing it to take over running of the region.
Catalonia's leader said the region's parliament would vote on independence if Spain continued "repression".
Catalans voted to secede in a referendum outlawed by Spain.
Some fear the latest moves could spark further unrest after mass demonstrations before and since the ballot on 1 October.
Spain's supreme court declared the vote illegal and said it violated the constitution, which describes the country as indivisible.
Article 155 of the constitution, which cemented democratic rule three years after the death of dictator General Francisco Franco in 1975, allows Madrid to impose direct rule in a crisis but it has never been invoked.
BBC Madrid correspondent Tom Burridge says that for Madrid this is about upholding the rule of law in Catalonia, protecting the Spanish constitution and disciplining what it sees as an unruly, disobedient devolved government.
However, the central government wants to minimise the risk of large-scale demonstrations, our correspondent says. Civil servants and government lawyers have thought long and hard about what measures to adopt and when and how they should be implemented.

A slow game

By Katya Adler, BBC Europe editor
The Catalan crisis is reaching breaking point but we have to be careful here. Nothing will happen from one day to the next.
Political rhetoric aside, both the Spanish government and Catalan regional leaders know sentiments are running so high across Spain at the moment, that millions are poised to take to the streets.
Once the shopping list of measures has been decided, the Catalan leader has the right of reply and we're told there is no legal window of opportunity for him to do so, meaning this could take days or weeks.
Finally, the Spanish Senate needs to approve the measures.

What is Madrid's position?

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had set a deadline of 10:00 local time (08:00 GMT) for Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to offer a definitive answer on the independence question, and called on him to "act sensibly".
When it passed, the Spanish government accused the Catalan authorities of seeking confrontation.
"The Spanish government will continue with the procedures outlined in Article 155 of the Constitution to restore legality in Catalonia's self-government," it said.
Media captionWhy is there a Catalan crisis? The answer is in its past, as Europe correspondent Gavin Lee explains
"It denounces the attitude maintained by those in charge of the Generalitat [Catalan government] to seek, deliberately and systematically, institutional confrontation despite the serious damage that is being caused to the coexistence and the economic structure of Catalonia.
"No-one doubts that the Spanish government will do all it can to restore the constitutional order."

What happens now?

Mr Rajoy is due to attend an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday afternoon.
On Saturday the government will be expected to draw up a list of specific measures under Article 155 of the constitution, launching the transfer of powers from Catalonia to Madrid.
Media captionCatalonia independence and some of Europe's border changes
The article says: "If a self-governing community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the government... may... take all measures necessary to compel the community to meet said obligations, or to protect the above-mentioned general interest."
It is thought the measures implemented could range from taking control of the regional police and finances to calling a snap election.
Spain's Senate, controlled by Mr Rajoy's conservative Popular Party (PP) and its allies, would then have to approve the list.
Analysts say Article 155 does not give the government the power to fully suspend autonomy, and it will not be able to deviate from the list of measures.

Where does this leave the Catalan leader?

Mr Puigdemont said in a letter to Mr Rajoy on Thursday morning that the independence declaration remained suspended but this could change.
"If the government continues to impede dialogue and continues with the repression, the Catalan parliament could proceed, if it is considered opportune, to vote on a formal declaration of independence."
But he faces an uphill struggle - it is likely that senior figures in charge of internal security in Catalonia could be dismissed, and control of the region's police force could pass to Madrid.
The regional parliament could also be dissolved.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont (left) and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Photo: March 2016Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionTough choices: How will Carles Puigdemont (L) answer Mariano Rajoy's ultimatum?
One Spanish newspaper has reported that Mr Puigdemont might nominally remain in his job but Madrid would aim to take control of many of his duties and powers.
Ultimately the process could end in regional elections but the Spanish constitution does not impose any time limit.

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