Biodun.BBC: Protesters

Saturday, January 25, 2020

ANALYSIS: Protesters hit Beirut streets to mark 100 days of demos

Issued on: 25/01/2020 - 19:20Modified: 25/01/2020 - 21:19 GMT/ZULU

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Beirut

by Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, France24 News Analysts

Hundreds of people hit the streets of the Lebanese capital on Saturday to mark 100 days of anti-government demonstrations and denounce a new cabinet line-up.

Protests demanding the removal of politicians deemed incompetent and corrupt have gripped Lebanon since October 17 and forced the resignation of the government.

A new cabinet was announced on Tuesday after a three-month vacuum.

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But protesters say the ministers were chosen along sectarian lines and that the line-up does not satisfy their demands for a government of independents and technocrats.

On Saturday, several marches were held in Beirut under the slogan "No trust", with protesters converging on the city centre.

Demonstrators chanted "Revolution, Revolution" under the watchful gaze of security forces, who were deployed in high numbers.

The protest movement has largely been peaceful since it began more than three months ago, but has turned violent in recent weeks.

"The government (formed on Tuesday) is not the one we have been seeking," demonstrator Perla Maalouli said in central Beirut.

"We demand a salvation government... not one whose members are selected according to (sectarian) quotas", which the protest movement had mobilised against, she said.

Apportioning positions between Lebanon's main Christian, Sunni and Shiite communities has been key to forming governments since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Maalouli said politicians had failed to heed the protest campaign.

"After 100 days (of demonstrations), they continue to do as they please, as if the people have not spoken," she said.

The new government, headed by academic Hassan Diab, faces huge economic and political challenges.

Lebanon has one of the world's highest debt-to-GDP ratios and economists have argued it is hard to see how the near-bankrupt country could repay its creditors.

The Lebanese pound has lost over a third of its value against the dollar in the parallel market and banks are tightening restrictions on dollar transactions amid a liquidity crunch.

The economic downturn has raised questions over whether Lebanon will turn to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout, an option the government has yet to comment on, but which some officials regard as inevitable.

Earlier Saturday, the new Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni met with a senior IMF official in Beirut, a day after holding talks with a World Bank delegation.

The new premier Diab on Wednesday warned that Lebanon faces an economic "catastrophe", but has pledged that his government will strive to meet the protesters' demands.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

ANALYSIS AND BREAKING: High stakes for army as protests engulf Lebanon

Issued on: 26/10/2019 - 15:10 GMT/ZULU

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Beirut

by Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, France24 Analysts

It's one of the iconic images of Lebanon's protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd -- the same dilemma now facing the national army.

An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralysed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task.

When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them.

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What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers.

"There have been repeated attempts by the political establishment... to get the military to clear the street," said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"The Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts," said Nerguizian.

Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become "two contradictory duties" -- protecting the people's freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment.

Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders.

The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005.

Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah grew to outgun the army, which took years to restore its credibility but never lost its popularity.

- 'One of us' -

"The Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible," Nerguizian said.

With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years.

According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs "to build up its strength and viability."

It has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the country's protector continues to be rivalled by Hezbollah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war.

Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army.

In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps.

Today, political leaders have diverging positions "but the street is one", said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019.

The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public.

"He's crying because he's one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his," said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day.

Graffiti reading "the army is a red line" has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters.

With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in.

Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: "Save us!"