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Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Biodun Iginla, BBC News
Showing posts with label Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Show all posts

Saturday, October 26, 2019

ANALYSIS AND BREAKING: High stakes for army as protests engulf Lebanon


Issued on: 26/10/2019 - 15:10  GMT/ZULU
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Beirut
by Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, France24 Analysts
It's one of the iconic images of Lebanon's protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd -- the same dilemma now facing the national army.
An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralysed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task.
When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them.
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What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers.
"There have been repeated attempts by the political establishment... to get the military to clear the street," said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts," said Nerguizian.
Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become "two contradictory duties" -- protecting the people's freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment.
Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders.
The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005.
Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah grew to outgun the army, which took years to restore its credibility but never lost its popularity.
- 'One of us' -
"The Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible," Nerguizian said.
With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years.
According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs "to build up its strength and viability."
It has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the country's protector continues to be rivalled by Hezbollah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war.
Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army.
In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps.
Today, political leaders have diverging positions "but the street is one", said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019.
The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public.
"He's crying because he's one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his," said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day.
Graffiti reading "the army is a red line" has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters.
With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in.
Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: "Save us!"

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Posted by Biodun Iginla at 5:03 AM No comments:
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Labels: Beirut, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), france24, hezbollah, Lebanese military, lebanon, Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian, Protesters, social media

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

China seemed to have build reinforced hangars on disputed islands: think tank


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Construction are seen on Subi Reef in the Spratly islands, in the disputed South China Sea in this July 24, 2016 satellite image released by the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to Reuters on August 9, 2016. CSIS...
REUTERS
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by Biodun Iginla, BBC News, Washington DC
Recent satellite photographs show China appears to have built reinforced aircraft hangars on its holdings in the disputed South China Sea, according to a Washington-based think tank.
Pictures taken in late July show the hangars constructed on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands, have room for any fighter jet in the Chinese air force, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
"Except for a brief visit by a military transport plane to Fiery Cross Reef earlier this year, there is no evidence that Beijing has deployed military aircraft to these outposts. But the rapid construction of reinforced hangars at all three features indicates that this is likely to change," CSIS said in a report.
China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.
The images have emerged about a month after an international court in The Hague ruled against China's sweeping claims in the resource-rich region, a ruling emphatically rejected by Beijing.
The United States has urged China and other claimants not to militarize their holdings in the South China Sea.

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China has repeatedly denied doing so and has in turn criticized U.S. patrols and exercises for ramping up tensions.
“China has indisputable sovereignty over the Spratly islands and nearby waters," China's Defence Ministry said in a faxed response to a request for comment on Tuesday.
"China has said many times, construction on the Spratly islands and reefs is multipurpose, mixed, and with the exception of necessary military defensive requirements, are more for serving all forms of civil needs."
Ties around the region have been strained in the lead-up to and since The Hague ruling.
China has sent bombers and fighter jets on combat patrols near the contested South China Sea islands, state media reported on Saturday, and Japan has complained about what it has said were multiple intrusions into its territorial waters around another group of islands in the East China Sea.
The hangars all show signs of structural strengthening, CSIS said.
"They are far thicker than you would build for any civilian purpose," Gregory Poling, director of CSIS's Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told the New York Times, which first reported on the new images. "They're reinforced to take a strike."
Other facilities including unidentified towers and hexagonal structures have also been built on the islets in recent months, CSIS said.

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Posted by Biodun Iginla at 11:19 AM No comments:
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Labels: bbc news, biodun iginla, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), china, Fiery Cross, south china sea, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands
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Biodun Iginla
Biodun Iginla is a News Analyst for BBC News and a freelance writer and author who writes about politics and culture. He divides his time between Minneapolis, London, and Paris. He has also published 58 books, novels and nonfiction. Please see his books at amazon.com
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