Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Biodun Iginla, BBC News
Showing posts with label bailouts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bailouts. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

ANALYSIS: Virus-stricken airlines face bailout or bust, as coronavirus explodes around globally


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Airlines worldwide face an unprecedented existential threat as the coronavirus shuts down global travel, leaving governments with controversial and costly decisions about which carriers to bail out.
A toxic mix of fear, crippling travel bans and investor panic have pummelled the sector, with demand collapsing and carriers cutting flight capacity by up to 90 percent.
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One troubled airline, Britain's Flybe, has already gone to the wall and market analysts believe many more could follow.
"By the end of May 2020, most airlines in the world will be bankrupt," market intelligence firm CAPA has warned.
Even before US President Donald Trump effectively barred trans-Atlantic travel, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated the crisis would cost the industry $113 billion, or nearly 20 percent of its revenue this year.
The true figure now looks like being much higher.
Brendan Sobie, an independent aviation analyst based in Singapore, said the global situation was "unprecedented".
"You can compare it to things like SARS or the global financial crisis, but I think it goes beyond that. No one really knows how long it will last and what the full impact will be."
Airlines are now sprinting to slash costs and bolster company war chests where possible -- laying off staff, cutting routes, renegotiating deals with suppliers and flying smaller, cheaper-to-run planes.
Australian carrier Qantas has cut international flight capacity by 90 percent and domestic routes by 60 percent. Similarly, British Airways is slashing capacity by 75 percent.
Meanwhile, Dutch national airline KLM plans to cut up to 2,000 jobs, the CEO of Delta Air Lines has seen his salary cut to zero, and Lufthansa suspended dividends.
In an internal memo, Malaysia Airlines admitted the company was already in a "critical situation" and urged staff to take voluntary unpaid leave.
"Many airlines are now at risk of going bankrupt and Malaysia Airlines is no different," chief financial officer Boo Hui Yee wrote.
- Enter the taxpayer? -
Against this bleak backdrop, previously hushed whispers about government bailouts have become panicked screams for help.
British airlines are said to have asked the government for more than $9 billion in support.
Trade group Airlines for America has called for a $50 billion bailout, more than triple the aid provided after the 9/11 attacks.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the sector would come "top of the list" for relief.
But such substantial government help could prove deeply unpopular.
Many taxpayers are still bitter about Wall Street bailouts during the 2008 global financial crisis and a perceived "heads I win, tails you lose" corporate culture.
"The biggest US airlines spent 96 percent of free cash flow over the last decade to buy back shares of their own stock in order to boost executive bonuses and please wealthy investors," complained former US labour secretary Robert Reich.
"Now, they expect taxpayers to bail them out to the tune of $50 billion. It's the same old story."
Airlines are already under the spotlight over their carbon emissions and sustainability.
And after years of shrinking legroom and charging for blankets, they frequently rank among consumers' most hated companies.
With major western economies heading for recession, governments may also struggle to triage requests for assistance.
"Airlines might be at the top of the list for directed fiscal help, but virtually every global industry is facing pressure without a government bailout," said Stephen Innes, a strategist at AxiCorp.
These companies are normally considered a vital strategic asset, underpinning tourism, trade, business contacts and large manufacturers such as Boeing, Airbus or Rolls-Royce.
In countries like Australia or South Africa -- which has repeatedly bailed out South African Airways -- flagship carriers are also seen as national champions, promoting the country in the world.
Repeated calls for rules to be loosened to encourage transborder mergers have been rebuffed on the grounds that foreign firms should not own such sensitive assets.
Airlines and airports are also large employers, accounting for around four million jobs worldwide and many tens of millions more in associated industries.
Staff have already taken a hit with reduced hours and the threat of job cuts.
One Cathay Dragon flight attendant based in Hong Kong, who asked not to be named, told us at France24 that he had not been on duty since February 6 and faced another couple of weeks off at the very least.
He has lost 60 to 70 percent of his normal monthly income and is relying on savings, in one of the world's most expensive cities.
For consumers, there could be big changes in store when the coronavirus restrictions lift.
For the brave, there are some deals to be had for now, but in the longer term "airfares may rise as airlines try to recoup losses", according to Endau Analytics analyst Shukor Yusof.
A rash of market consolidation and mergers could reduce competition and put upward pressure on prices.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Analysis: Greece leaves bailouts behind after biting austerity


by Elodie Bagnol and Biodun Iginla, France24 Financial News Analysts, Athens


    © AFP | Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is expected to give a televised speech to the nation on Tuesday to mark the end of Greece's bailouts.

    ATHENS  - 
    After years of tough austerity measures, Greece emerges on Monday from its third and last bailout, although officials warn the country still has a "long way to go".
    The European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund loaned debt-wracked Greece a total of 289 billion euros ($330 billion) in three successive programmes in 2010, 2012 and 2015.
    The economic reforms the creditors demanded in return brought the country to its knees with a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP) evaporating over eight years and unemployment soaring to more than 27 percent.
    But Greece has now returned to growth, its once vast public deficit has been turned into a solid budget surplus, and the jobless rate has fallen below 20 percent, officials say.
    "For the first time since early 2010 Greece can stand on its own feet. This was possible thanks to the extraordinary effort of the Greek people, the good cooperation with the current Greek government and the support of European partners through loans and debt relief," said Mario Centeno, board chairman of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in a statement.
    "It took much longer than expected but I believe we are there," Centeno added.
    Greek households, however, continue to feel the effects of unpopular and stinging austerity.
    "The reality on the ground remains difficult. The time for austerity is over, but the end of the programme is not the end of the road for reform," EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said at the weekend.
    - No backtracking -
    Moscovici's opinion is shared by Greece's central bank governor, Yannis Stournaras.
    "Greece still has a long way to go," Stournaras said in an interview with the Kathimerini newspaper on Sunday.
    He warned that if Greece backtracks "on what we have agreed, now or in the future, the markets will abandon us and we will not be able to refinance maturing loans on sustainable-debt terms".
    He also expressed concern that "if there is strong international turbulence, either in neighbouring Italy or Turkey or in the global economy, we will face difficulties in tapping markets".
    The Greek government estimates its financing needs are now covered until the end of 2022, opening up room for it to plan its return to the capital markets.
    Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who is expected to hail the end of the bailouts with a televised address on Tuesday, said in June after the agreement by the eurozone ministers to put an end to the rescue programme that Greece could start focusing on a "social state".
    "Now we have the opportunity to proceed with targeted reliefs, to proceed with tax reduction in 2019 and to support the social state and welfare," he said.
    The country may have achieved budget surpluses -- excluding debt repayments -- of around four percent in 2016 and 2017, but its hands remain tied on social welfare spending.
    Greece has already legislated for new reforms for 2019 and 2020 and will remain under supervision for several years.
    - 'Shackles still on' -
    The improving economic indicators are not yet translating into tangible improvements in the day-to-day lives of Greeks.
    "The bailout is over, but the shackles and the asphyxiation are still on," the opposition-friendly Vima newspaper wrote on Sunday.
    Economics professor Nikos Vettas believes it is "imperative" to generate "very strong growth" in the coming years. Otherwise, "households that are in a very weak position due to 10 years of cumulative recession will continue to suffer".
    Greece, however, has gained some credibility among the international community.
    "The commitments assumed by Greece for the future are clear. I have no doubt that they will be respected,? French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told Greek newspaper To Vima on Sunday, insisting that the country?s bailout exit was a ?great success?.