AFTER the most volatile and closely run campaign in recent history, the French first-round vote has yielded an extraordinary outcome, putting two party outsiders into the final round of the country’s presidential election. According to estimates by Ipsos, a pollster, for France 2 Télévisions based on a sample of polling-station results, Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European centrist independent, came first with 23.7%. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front (FN) followed with 21.9%. The pair will go through to a run-off vote on May 7th.
This result means that for the first time in modern French history, the second round will not include a candidate from either of the two political families—the Socialists and the Republicans—that have held the presidency since the Fifth Republic was established by Charles de Gaulle in 1958. François Fillon, a former prime minister and the Republicans’ beleaguered candidate, came third, with 19.7% of the vote, closely trailed by the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 19.2%, who failed to sustain a late surge during the closing weeks of the campaign.
The selection of Ms Le Pen and Mr Macron for the run-off, on a high turnout of around 80%, is remarkable in several respects. In effect, it turns the final round of the election into a direct contest between two rival world views. Campaigning under the slogan “In the name of the people”, Ms Le Pen calls herself a “patriot” and spreads an essentially nationalist message. She vows to hold a referendum on taking France out of the European Union, and thus the euro; to introduce protectionist trade barriers; to tax firms that hire foreigners; to strengthen ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia; to close the borders to immigration; and to strip jihadist suspects with dual citizenship of their French nationality. By contrast Mr Macron, who set up his party, En Marche! (On the Move!), only a year ago, advocates keeping France central to the liberal Western order. A former Socialist economy minister, he is a zealous pro-European who wants to reinforce ties with Germany, to keep France part of the global trading system, to build cross-party support between left and right in order to “unblock” the French economy, and to support the transatlantic alliance. Polls taken before first-round voting consistently suggested that he would beat Ms Le Pen by some 20 points in a head-to-head contest. Although no surprise can be ruled out, voters from the centre-right and far left are expected to rally to him, whatever their reservations, in order to keep her out.
This first-round result could also presage the break-up of the French party system. It is a measure of the anti-establishment mood that neither Ms Le Pen nor Mr Macron belong to a mainstream, established party. The FN was founded in 1972 by Ms Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, but has been confined for decades to the xenophobic fringes of political life. When Mr Le Pen shocked France and made it into the final of the presidential election in 2002, he was roundly beaten by Jacques Chirac, a Gaullist, who got 82% of the vote in the run off. The FN currently has only two deputies in the National Assembly, and mayors in only a dozen of the country’s 36,000 communes. That Ms Le Pen is in a position potentially to double her father’s result is a reflection of how far she has turned the FN into a fixed feature of the French party system, and brought its ideas into the mainstream. Even if she loses the presidency, the FN has wielded influence over this campaign in a way that far outweighs its electoral representation.
As for the amiable Mr Macron, he has already pulled off a historic feat. Three years ago, the 39-year-old former investment banker and adviser to the Socialist president, François Hollande was unknown to the general public. Last summer he was still considered an outsider whose hopes of running for president defied all French rules about the way candidacies are slow-cooked over the years. But his political gamble and his campaign team’s tireless door-knocking and leaflet-stuffing have paid off. En Marche! boasts more than twice as many members as the decades-old Socialist Party. Mr Macron now goes into the second round as the firm favourite.
As Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen now prepare for a tough two-week campaign, France could be in for a deep political realignment. Disappointed centre-left deputies from the Socialist camp, whose candidate, Benoît Hamon, secured a miserable 6.2% of the vote and who fear for their parliamentary seats, could well knock on Mr Macron’s door ahead of legislative elections in June. The En Marche! team says that many Socialists are ready to defect. On the right, the Republicans had expected this election to belong to them, after five years under the unpopular Mr Hollande. Some of its deputies too will be tempted to join Mr Macron. Dominique de Villepin, a former prime minister (though not a deputy), has already pledged his support. Within the party, there will be recriminations and despondency as it decides how to pick itself up, and whether it can survive in its current form.
On May 7th, France faces a choice that will determine not only its future but that of the EU. It will become the most crucial test case in Europe for whether a liberal Western democracy can defy the trend and face down nationalist populism. The political alternatives on offer in this run-off could scarcely differ more. But the chances are that France's next president will be a man with a dream and a gamble, who is now as well-placed as possible to become the next, and youngest-ever, president of the Fifth Republic.
Pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron came under fire Monday over a glitzy party in a high-end Paris bistro and his triumphant speech following his success in the first round of France's presidential polls.
Even close allies appeared to caution the inexperienced 39-year-old against complacency ahead of the second round run-off on May 7 against far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
"We need to be humble. The election hasn't been won and we need to bring people together to win," Richard Ferrand, secretary general of Macron's "En Marche" ("On the Move") movement, told BFM television on Monday.
After results emerged on Sunday evening, Macron addressed thousands of euphoric supporters at an election party in southern Paris and brought his wife Brigitte on stage to share in the applause.
"In one year, we've changed the face of French political life," he said to shouts of "Macron! President!"
Later in the evening, he was filmed visiting supporters at the famed La Rotonde bistro in southern Paris, a "Belle Epoque" hang-out for Picasso and other artists where a steak and chips costs 28 euros ($30).
"Macron made a speech as if he'd already won," Le Pen's top aide Florian Philippot said Monday, before attacking Macron for copying the style of former right-wing leader Nicolas Sarkozy.
Sarkozy, who would come to be known as the "bling-bling president", held an infamous victory party in 2007 in a restaurant on the Champs Elysees called Le Fouquet's which was packed with celebrities and business leaders.
"There were mostly volunteers... supporters who sacrificed everything for a year to put him where he is today," one of Macron's top supporters, Gerard Collomb, told RMC radio of the crowd in the restaurant.
He said La Rotonde, one of Macron's favourite eateries, "isn't exactly Le Fouquet's."
Le Pen's National Front (FN) will seek to highlight the centrist's past as a millionaire investment banker, advisor to unpopular President Francois Hollande and pro-globalisation economy minister in the weeks ahead.
"While all Macron's supporters recover from their showbiz evening at La Rotonde, Marine is at a market in Rouvroy," leading FN figure David Rachline tweeted on Monday, showing the far-right leader in a small town in northern France.
Polls published on Sunday night showed Macron comfortably beating Le Pen in the run-off if the vote were held now.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front (FN) did not deliver posters in time for them to appear outside voting booths abroad, the French foreign ministry said on Sunday.
"The posters are printed by the candidates themselves and it is up to them to hand them in to the electoral commission before the deadline" of April 10, the ministry said.
It said "only 10" of the 11 candidates did this in time -- meaning their posters appear at polling stations abroad.
"The posters for the candidate Marine Le Pen were not provided so the corresponding poster board is empty," the ministry added.
Large metal boards are erected outside polling stations in France, with campaign posters for the 11 candidates.
Around 1.3 million French people abroad are registered to vote -- representing around two percent of the total electorate.
France is going to the polls on Sunday under high security for a vote that is seen as crucial for the future of the country and the European Union.
Far-right Le Pen is seen as one of the front runners but opinion polls suggest an extremely close race and any two of the four top candidates have a fighting chance to make it to the all-important run-off on May 7.
