ANALYSIS: Singapore to Hanoi: The bumpy diplomatic road since Trump and Kim first met

February 14, 2019  07H:12  GMT/ZULU

by Wang Yang and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and Reuters, Political News Analysts, SEOUL/WASHINGTON

SEOUL/WASHINGTON - It’s been the better part of a year since U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stood face to face for the first time at their unprecedented summit in Singapore.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un react at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo

As the two leaders prepare to meet in Vietnam for a second summit, there is a growing expectation that this time they need to make a more specific agreement.

North Korea still has its nuclear weapons, and Washington has only increased sanctions on Pyongyang so the stakes are high for both leaders who have promised to overcome decades of tension and conflict between the two countries.

Here is a breakdown of what Trump and Kim have agreed to, what has - and hasn’t - happened since they last shook hands, and what may be on the negotiating table.

THE SINGAPORE AGREEMENT

The Singapore summit in June represented the first time a sitting American president met with a North Korean leader, but the statement that came out of the meeting was light on specifics, opting instead for four general commitments:

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WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE SINGAPORE

Just ahead of the first summit, in May, North Korea destroyed some tunnels and buildings at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, observed by international journalists but not expert inspectors.

Immediately following his meeting with Kim, Trump made a surprise announcement that the United States would suspend military drills with South Korea, which have often been criticized by North Korea as rehearsal for war. Major exercises have been halted, while smaller ones continued.

North Korea moved quickly to repatriate 55 boxes containing what were believed to be the remains of American soldiers killed in the war.

In July, satellite images indicated North Korea had begun to dismantle some facilities at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station, but later reports by U.S. think tanks said no further dismantling had been observed.

And North and South Korea moved forward with their own reconciliation, holding three summits and taking steps to reduce military tensions along their shared border by closing some guard posts, removing landmines, and imposing a no-fly zone.

Other inter-Korea plans depend heavily on Washington’s willingness to support easing sanctions that block most economic engagement with North Korea.

The past year was a see-saw of occasional public meetings - and canceled visits - between American and North Korean officials.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Pyongyang multiple times, first being condemned by North Korea over “gangster-like demands” for the North’s complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization, then later earning Kim Jong Un’s “satisfaction” with another meeting.

Trump, meanwhile, hosted senior North Korean officials at the White House and declared that he and Kim “fell in love” after exchanging letters.

In his New Year’s speech, Kim said he was still open to meeting Trump again, but warned of a potential “new path,” which could indicate an eventual return to weapons development, if he was not satisfied with the negotiations.

A flurry of talks in early January led to Trump announcing the second summit would happen in Vietnam at the end of February.

WHAT HASN’T HAPPENED

Throughout all these talks, as well as other behind-the-scenes negotiations, neither side announced major new steps toward denuclearization, easing sanctions, or establishing a new “peace regime” for the peninsula.

Statements carried by North Korean state media complained about Washington’s opposition to signing a peace declaration or easing sanctions until North Korea takes more steps toward denuclearization.

In the meantime, U.S. intelligence and defense officials say North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear and missile arsenals, despite a self-imposed moratorium on testing, and that the country is unlikely to ever surrender all of its nuclear weapons.

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After meeting with Kim in September, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said the North is willing to “permanently dismantle” its Yongbyon main nuclear complex and allow international inspectors into some missile sites if the United States makes concessions of its own.

But neither the American concessions nor the inspections have been forthcoming so far.

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN VIETNAM

American and North Korean officials have been tight-lipped about what agreement might come from the second Trump-Kim summit, but analysts say Washington needs to be open to taking interim steps for any deal to be possible.

Stephen Biegun, the top U.S. envoy to North Korea, told South Korean lawmakers that most of the recent discussions with Pyongyang had revolved around summit logistics, and that more talks were needed to address the substantive issues.

But Biegun said a “dozen” agenda items were discussed, one of the lawmakers said, and North Korea has called for easing sanctions, restarting some inter-Korean economic projects, opening a U.S. liaison office in Pyongyang, and signing a declaration formally ending the technical state of war from the 1950-53 conflict.

Other moves could include easing the ban on Americans traveling to North Korea, or providing more bilateral aid.

To win some of those concessions from Washington, North Korea could follow through on shutting its Yongbyon nuclear complex, as well as abolish key missile facilities in the presence of foreign experts, South Korean officials have said.

North Korea’s state media said in December that Pyongyang’s commitment to the “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” also includes “completely eliminating the U.S. nuclear threat to Korea,” but did not spell out specific steps Washington should take.

While some U.S. lawmakers and analysts have speculated Trump could agreed to reduce the American military presence in South Korea, officials in Seoul and Washington have said troop levels are not up for negotiation.

North Korea state media says denuclearization includes 'eliminating U.S. nuclear threat'

December 20, 2018  11H:34  GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME

by Coco Jiang and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and Reuters, Pyongyang. Coco is working undercover in Pyongyang

PYONGYANG  - North Korea’s commitment to the “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” also includes “completely eliminating the U.S. nuclear threat to Korea,” North Korean state media said on Thursday.

U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore in this picture released on June 12, 2018 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS/File Photo

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un issued a joint statement after their historic meeting in Singapore in June that reaffirmed the North’s commitment to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” and gave U.S. guarantees of security to North Korea.

Conflicting or vague views of what exactly “denuclearization” means, however, have complicated negotiations that now appear stalled.

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Thursday’s commentary, released by North Korea’s state-run KCNA news agency, is one of the clearest explanations since the June summit of how Pyongyang sees denuclearization.

“When we refer to the Korean peninsula, the term encompasses the area of DPRK plus South Korean territory where U.S. nuclear weapons and other forms of aggression forces are deployed,” the editorial said, using the initials of North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“When we refer to the ‘denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’ as well, it should be correctly understood as removing all nuclear threat factors from not only the North and the South but from all neighboring areas.”

North Korea rejects American calls for it to unilaterally denuclearize, and Washington should abandon the “delusion” of forcing Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons “via pressure and oppression,” the article said.

The United States has said that it will not lift sanctions on North Korea until more progress has been made toward the verifiable denuclearization of North Korea.

Washington has also rejected any suggestion that it would reduce its military presence in the region as part of a deal with North Korea, but in a surprise move after the summit, Trump announced that the Pentagon would cancel most of its largest military exercises conducted with the South Koreans.

The exact definition of denuclearization is likely to be raised again as Trump has said he is working to meet again with Kim sometime early next year.

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“It is obvious that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is a joint business that cannot be achieved unless both Korea and the United States strive together,” the KCNA commentary said. “In this sense, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be defined as ‘completely eliminating the U.S. nuclear threat to Korea’ before it can eliminate our nuclear deterrent.”

The United States deployed nuclear weapons in South Korea from 1958 to 1991. Since they were withdrawn, the United States has extended its “nuclear umbrella” of support to Japan and South Korea using bombers and submarines based elsewhere.

At a press briefing in Washington on Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Palladino said he would not “split words” when asked about whether the promise of “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” means only North Korea or the broader region.

“We are focused on the denuclearization of North Korea,” Palladino said. “We remain confident and we look forward to the commitments that Chairman Kim and that President Trump have made.”

BREAKING: U.S. spy satellites have detected renewed activity at the North Korean factory

July 31, 2018 06H:00  GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME

by Suzanne Gould and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and Reuters, with Coco Jiang, WASHINGTON/PYONGYANG. Coco Jiang worked undercover in Pyongyang for several months.

WASHINGTON - U.S. spy satellites have detected renewed activity at the North Korean factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, a senior U.S. official said on Monday, in the midst of talks to compel Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arms.

A satellite image shows the Sanumdong missile production site in North Korea on July 29, 2018. Planet Labs Inc/Handout via REUTERS

Photos and infrared imaging indicate vehicles moving in and out of the facility at Sanumdong, but do not show how advanced any missile construction might be, the official told us at Reuters on condition of anonymity because the intelligence is classified.

The Washington Post reported on Monday that North Korea appeared to be building one or two new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles at the large research facility on the outskirts of Pyongyang, citing unidentified officials familiar with intelligence reporting.

According to the U.S. official who spoke to us at Reuters, one photo showed a truck and covered trailer similar to those the North has used to move its ICBMs. Since the trailer was covered, it was not possible to know what, if anything, it was carrying.

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The White House said it did not comment on intelligence.

The evidence obtained this month is the latest to suggest ongoing activity in North Korea’s nuclear and missile facilities despite talks with the United States and a June summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump declared soon afterward that North Korea no longer posed a nuclear threat. Kim committed in a broad summit statement to work toward denuclearization, but Pyongyang has offered no details as to how it might go about that and subsequent talks have not gone smoothly.

It was not the first time U.S. intelligence clashed with the president’s optimism.

In late June, U.S. officials told U.S. media outlets that intelligence agencies believed North Korea had increased production of fuel for nuclear weapons and that it did not intend to fully give up its nuclear arsenal.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week that North Korea was continuing to produce fuel for nuclear bombs despite its pledge to denuclearize. But he insisted the Trump administration was still making progress in its talks with Pyongyang.

Joel Wit, a former State Department negotiator and founder of 38 North, a North Korea monitoring project, said it was unrealistic to expect North Korea to stop its programs “until the ink is dry on an agreement.”

That was the case with U.S. negotiations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and more recently with Iran, “which continued to build more centrifuges capable of producing nuclear material even as it negotiated with the United States to limit those capabilities,” Wit said.

The Sanumdong factory produced two Hwasong-15 ICBMs, North Korea’s longest-range missiles, but the U.S. official noted that Pyongyang still had not tested a reliable re-entry vehicle capable of surviving a high-velocity trip through the Earth’s atmosphere and delivering a nuclear warhead.

It is possible, the official said, that any new missiles the North is building may be for further testing of such vehicles and of more accurate guidance systems.

“They seem to have figured out the engines, but not all the higher-tech stuff, and that might be what this is about,” the official said.

“What’s more, a liquid-fueled ICBM doesn’t pose nearly the threat that a solid-fueled one would because they take so long to fuel, and that’s something we almost certainly could see in time to abort a launch, given our assets in the vicinity.”

North Korea official in New York. for talks on summit, differences remain

May 31, 2018  05H:32  GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME

by Biodun Iginla, BBC News and Reuters, New York

NEW YORK - A senior North Korean official made a rare visit to the United States on Wednesday for talks about a possible summit between the leaders of the two countries but the sides appeared far apart on the central issue of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons.

Kim Yong Chol, a close aide of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and vice chairman of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee, arrived at New York’s John F. Kennedy airport on a flight from Beijing. He was later seen entering a hotel in midtown Manhattan.

Kim Yong Chol is due to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss whether to go ahead with an unprecedented meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim.

The summit, originally planned for June 12 in Singapore, has been cast in doubt as the two countries - which have technically been at war since the 1950s - test each other’s diplomatic mettle.

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As the U.S. and North Korean officials prepared for their first encounter in New York on Wednesday evening, Pompeo repeated the Trump administration’s demands.

“Looking forward to meeting with Kim Yong Chol in New York to discuss @Potus potential summit with Chairman Kim. We are committed to the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula @StateDept,” Pompeo said in a Twitter post.

Trump last week called off the summit after North Korea expressed anger at comments by senior U.S. officials. But Trump later said he was reconsidering his position and U.S., North Korean and South Korean officials have gone ahead with summit preparations.

The White House said on Wednesday that negotiations at the demilitarized zone along the border between North and South Korea for the summit were going well and that it expects the historic meeting to take place on June 12.

Separately on Wednesday at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, Admiral Harry Harris, the outgoing head of U.S. Pacific Command who is Trump’s pick to be the ambassador to South Korea, said North Korea remained the United States’ most imminent threat. “And a nuclear-capable North Korea with missiles that can reach the United States is unacceptable,” Harris said.

A U.S. official said negotiations about the summit’s agenda have so far been slow going, and the two fundamental issues, the definition of North Korean denuclearization and whether both sides would take actions at the same time or separately, remained unsettled.

‘DENUCLEARIZATION’

Trump has sworn not to allow North Korea to develop nuclear missiles that could hit the United States and wants North Korea to “denuclearize,” or get rid of its nuclear arms.

But the leadership in Pyongyang is believed to regard nuclear weapons as crucial to its survival and has rejected unilaterally disarming.

The U.S. official said the U.S. position remained that Pyongyang must agree to complete denuclearization before it can receive any financial assistance, such as relaxation of some economic sanctions, new food or other aid, or new investment, and that the degree of assistance would depend on the pace and extent of Pyongyang’s actions.

North Korean envoy Kim Yong Chol (C), departs from a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York, U.S., May 30, 2018. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

North Korea’s position going into the meetings with Pompeo in New York, meanwhile, was that a pledge of denuclearization alone should open the way to economic relief, said the official, who is familiar with the talks and spoke on condition of anonymity.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted Seoul’s Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon as saying in a speech on Wednesday that the differences between North Korea and the United States on the denuclearization issue remained “quite significant” and it would not be easy to narrow the gap.

However, Cho added that the engagement of the leaders of the two countries meant “chances are high that common ground can be found.”

Kim Yong Chol is the most senior North Korean official to meet top officials for talks in the United States since Jo Myong Rok, a vice marshal, met then-President Bill Clinton at the White House in 2000.

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A former military spy chief, he has played a central role in the thaw in relations over the past six months between North Korea and South Korea, as well as the United States.

During his tenure as a senior intelligence official, Kim was accused by South Korea of masterminding deadly attacks on a South Korean navy ship and an island in 2010. He was linked by U.S intelligence to a cyber attack on Sony Pictures in 2014.

North Korea denied any involvement in the attack on the ship and on Sony Pictures.

North Korea defends its nuclear and missile programs as a deterrent against what it sees as U.S. ambitions to overthrow its leadership and unite the Korean Peninsula. The United States stations 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the 1950-1953 Korean War.