Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Egypt: 4 killed in clashes with Islamists

Jun 30, 5:23 PM EDT
 
by Nasra Ismail and Biodun Iginla, BBC News


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CAIRO -- Security officials say suspected Islamists have killed three protesters in the southern city of Assiut, taking to four the number of people killed on a day of massive protests demanding the ouster of Egypt's president.
The officials said Islamists on a motorbike opened fire on protesters outside the local government building in Assiut, killing one and wounding seven. Enraged by the killing, protesters marched to the office of the Freedom and Justice party, political arm of President Mohammed Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood.
Gunmen inside the building opened fire, killing at least two, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
A protester in Beni Suef was killed earlier outside the local headquarters of the Freedom and Justice party.

New NSA spying allegations rile European allies

Jun 30, 4:01 PM EDT

by Biodun Iginla, BBC News


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WASHINGTON  -- The Obama administration faced a breakdown in confidence Sunday from key foreign allies who threatened investigations and sanctions against the U.S. over secret surveillance programs that reportedly installed covert listening devices in European Union offices.
U.S. intelligence officials said they will directly discuss with EU officials the new allegations, reported in Sunday's editions of the German news weekly Der Spiegel. But the former head of the CIA and National Security Agency urged the White House to make the spy programs more transparent to calm public fears about the American government's snooping.
It was the latest backlash in a nearly monthlong global debate over the reach of U.S. surveillance that aims to prevent terror attacks. The two programs, both run by the NSA, pick up millions of telephone and Internet records that are routed through American networks each day. They have raised sharp concerns about whether they violate public privacy rights at home and abroad.
Several European officials - including in Germany, Italy, France, Luxembourg and the EU government itself - said the new revelations could scuttle ongoing negotiations on a trans-Atlantic trade treaty that, ultimately, seeks to create jobs and boost commerce by billions annually in what would be the world's largest free trade area.
"Partners do not spy on each other," said EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding. "We cannot negotiate over a big trans-Atlantic market if there is the slightest doubt that our partners are carrying out spying activities on the offices of our negotiators. The American authorities should eliminate any such doubt swiftly."
European Parliament President Martin Schulz, said he was "deeply worried and shocked about the allegations of U.S. authorities spying on EU offices." And Luxembourg Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Jean Asselborn said he had no reason to doubt the Der Spiegel report and rejected the notion that security concerns trump the broad U.S. surveillance authorities.
"We have to re-establish immediately confidence on the highest level of the European Union and the United States," Asselborn told The Associated Press.
According to Der Spiegel, the NSA planted bugs in the EU's diplomatic offices in Washington and infiltrated the building's computer network. Similar measures were taken at the EU's mission to the United Nations in New York, the magazine said. It also reported that the NSA used secure facilities at NATO headquarters in Brussels to dial into telephone maintenance systems that would have allowed it to intercept senior officials' calls and Internet traffic at a key EU office nearby.
The Spiegel report cited classified U.S. documents taken by NSA leaker and former contractor Edward Snowden that the magazine said it had partly seen. It did not publish the alleged NSA documents it cited nor say how it obtained access to them. But one of the report's authors is Laura Poitras, an award-winning documentary filmmaker who interviewed Snowden while he was holed up in Hong Kong.
In Washington, a statement from the national intelligence director's office said U.S. officials planned to respond to the concerns with their EU counterparts and through diplomatic channels with specific nations.
However, "as a matter of policy, we have made clear that the United States gathers foreign intelligence of the type gathered by all nations," the statement concluded. It did not provide further details.
NSA Director Keith Alexander last week said the government stopped gathering U.S. citizens' Internet data in 2011. But the NSA programs that sweep up foreigners' data through U.S. servers to pin down potential threats to Americans from abroad continue.
Speaking on CBS' "Face the Nation," former NSA and CIA Director Mike Hayden downplayed the European outrage over the programs, saying they "should look first and find out what their own governments are doing." But Hayden said the Obama administration should try to head off public criticism by being more open about the top-secret programs so that "people know exactly what it is we are doing in this balance between privacy and security."
"The more they know, the more comfortable they will feel," Hayden said. "Frankly, I think we ought to be doing a bit more to explain what it is we're doing, why, and the very tight safeguards under which we're operating."
Hayden also defended a secretive U.S. court that weighs whether to allow the government to seize the Internet and phone records from private companies. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court is made up of federal judges but does not consider objections from defense attorneys in considering the government's request for records.
Last year, the government asked the court to approve 1,789 applications to spy on foreign intelligence targets, according to a Justice Department notice to Congress dated April 30. The court approved all but one - and that was withdrawn by the government.
Critics have derided the court as a rubber stamp approval for the government, sparking an unusual response last week in The Washington Post by its former chief judge. In a statement to the newspaper, U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly refuted a draft NSA inspector general's report that suggested the court collaborated with the executive branch instead of maintaining judicial independence. Kollar-Kotelly was the court's chief judge from 2002 to 2006, when some of the surveillance programs were underway.
Some European counties have much stronger privacy laws than does the U.S. In Germany, where criticism of the NSA's surveillance programs has been particularly vocal, Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger likened the spying outlined in the Der Spiegel report to "methods used by enemies during the Cold War." German federal prosecutors are examining whether the reported U.S. electronic surveillance programs broke German laws.
Green Party leaders in the European Parliament called for an immediate investigation into the claims and called for existing U.S.-EU agreements on the exchange of bank transfer and passenger record information to be canceled. Both programs have been labeled as unwarranted infringements of citizens' privacy by left-wing and libertarian lawmakers in Europe.
The dispute also has jeopardized diplomatic relations between the U.S. and some of it its most unreliable allies, including China, Russia and Ecuador.
Snowden, who tuned 30 last week, revealed himself as the document leaker in June interviews in Hong Kong, but fled to Russia before China's government could turn him over to U.S. officials. Snowden is now believed to be holed up in a transit zone in Moscow's international airport, where Russian officials say they have no authority to catch him since he technically has not crossed immigration borders.
It's also believed Snowden is seeking political asylum from Ecuador. But Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa signaled in an AP interview Sunday that it's unlikely Snowden will end up there. Correa portrayed Russia as entirely the masters of Snowden's fate, and the Kremlin said it will take public opinion and the views of human rights activists into account when considering his case. That could lay the groundwork for Snowden to seek asylum in Russia.
Outgoing National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said U.S. and Russian law enforcement officials are discussing how to deal with Snowden, who is wanted on espionage charges. "The sooner that this can be resolved, the better," Donilon said in an interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria.
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi has a different take on what to do with Snowden. "I think it's pretty good that he's stuck in the Moscow airport," Pelosi, D-Calif., said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "That's ok with me. He can stay there, that's fine."

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Egypt group: 22 million signatures against Morsi

Jun 29, 1:19 PM EDT



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CAIRO -- More than 22 million Egyptians have signed a petition calling for the country's Islamist president to step down, the youth group leading the signature campaign said Saturday on the eve of mass protests aimed at forcing Mohammed Morsi from office.
The planned demonstrations, which could plunge Egypt once again into a dangerous round of civil unrest, reflect the growing polarization of the nation since Morsi took power, with the president and his Islamist allies in one camp and seculars, liberals, moderate Muslims and Christians on the other.
Already, clashes across a string of cities north of Cairo over the past week have left at least seven people dead, including an American, and hundreds injured, and there are deep-rooted fears in the country that Sunday's protests will turn violent and quickly spiral out of control.
On Saturday, an Associated Press reporter saw Morsi supporters at a Cairo sit-in doing military-style fitness drills, with some wearing homemade body armor and construction helmets and carrying sticks. They said they had no intention of attacking opposition protesters, and would only act in self-defense or to protect the presidential palace.
The Tamarod, or Rebel, youth movement says its petition is evidence of the widespread dissatisfaction with Morsi's administration, and has used the signature drive as the focal point of its call for millions of people to take to the streets Sunday to demand the president's ouster.
Mahmoud Badr, a Tamarod leader, told reporters Saturday a total of 22,134,460 Egyptians have signed the petition. He did not say whether there had been an independent audit of the signatures.
Morsi's supporters, who have long doubted the validity and authenticity of the collected signatures, expressed skepticism about the final count.
"How do we trust the petitions?" asked Brotherhood member Ahmed Seif Islam Hassan al-Banna. "Who guarantees that those who signed were not paid to sign?"
If authenticated, the collection of so many signatures would deal a symbolic blow to Morsi's mandate and put in stark terms the popular frustrations with an administration that critics say has failed to effectively deal with the country's pressing problems, including tenuous security, inflation, power cuts and high unemployment.
Tamarod, which began its campaign with the goal of collecting more signatures than the 13 million votes Morsi garnered in his 2012 election win, announced its final tally the day before protests that organizers vow will bring millions into the streets to push the president from power.
Morsi, meanwhile, sought to project a business-as-usual image Saturday, meeting with the defense and interior ministers to review preparations to protect the protesters and vital state facilities during Sunday's demonstrations.
Egypt has been roiled by political unrest in the two years since the uprising that ousted autocrat Hosni Mubarak, but the round of protests set to kick off Sunday promises to be the largest and holds the potential to be the bloodiest yet.
In the past week alone, at least seven people have been killed in clashes between the president's supporters and opponents in cities in the Nile Delta, while on Friday protesters ransacked and torched as least five Brotherhood offices across the country.
Adding to the tension, eight lawmakers from the country's interim legislature announced their resignation Saturday to protest Morsi's policies. The 270-seat chamber was elected early last year by less than 10 percent of Egypt's eligible voters, and is dominated by Islamists who support Morsi.
With a sense of doom hanging over the country, Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi last Sunday gave the president and his opponents a week to reach a compromise and warned that the military would intervene to prevent the nation from entering a "dark tunnel." It was the strongest expression of the military's discontent with conditions in the nation since Morsi took office a year ago.
In South Africa, President Barack Obama said the U.S. supports freedom of speech in Egypt and the right of protesters to peacefully assemble, and called on called on both sides in Egypt to avoid violence.
"We would urge all parties to make sure they're not engaging in violence (and) police and military are showing appropriate restraint," he said.
The opposition, feeling that Morsi may be on the ropes and frustrated by past offers of dialogue that proved to be mostly symbolic, has shown no inclination to compromise, and Morsi offered no concessions to his opponents when he addressed the nation for 2 1/2 hours on Wednesday.
The focus of Sunday's protests is Morsi's Ittihadiya palace in Cairo. As a precaution, the president and his family are reported to have moved into the Cairo headquarters of the Republican Guard, the branch of the army tasked with protecting the president and presidential palaces.
As the country waits to see what transpires Sunday, thousands of supporters and opponents of the embattled president held rival sit-ins Saturday in separate parts of the capital.
With expectations of violence running high, the military has dispatched troops backed by armored personnel carriers to reinforce military bases on the outskirts of cities expected to be flashpoints.
In Cairo, the additional forces were deployed to military facilities in the suburbs and outlying districts. Army troops are also moving to reinforce police guarding the city's prisons to prevent a repeat of the nearly half dozen jail breaks during the chaos of the 2011 uprising.
The opposition is demanding Morsi's ouster, saying he has lost his legitimacy through a series of missteps and authoritarian policies. They say early presidential elections should be held within six months of his ouster.
Hard-line Islamists loyal to Morsi have repeatedly vowed to "smash" the protesters, arguing that they were a front for loyalists of Hosni Mubarak, the autocrat ousted in Egypt's 2011 revolt, determined to undermine Morsi's rule. They also say that Morsi is a freely elected president who must serve out his four-year term before he can be replaced in an election.
Many Egyptians fear the new round of unrest could trigger a collapse in law and order similar to the one that occurred during the 2011 revolt. Already, residents in some of the residential compounds and neighborhoods to the west of the city are reporting gunmen showing up to demand protection money or risk being robbed.
The police, who have yet to fully take back the streets after they disappeared in unclear circumstances in 2011, have stepped up patrols on the outskirts of the city, ostensibly to prevent weapons and ammunition from coming into the city to be used in the case of an outbreak of violence. The army is advertising hotlines for civilians to call if they run into trouble.
In the latest reminder of the near lawlessness that has plagued the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza and Israel since the 2011 revolt, a senior security official officer was assassinated Saturday in the coastal city of el-Arish as he arrived home from work. Police Brig. Mohammed Tolbah was instantly killed and his driver seriously injured.
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Friday, June 28, 2013

Egypt clerics warn of 'civil war' amid skirmishes


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CAIRO/ALEXANDRIA | Fri Jun 28, 2013 2:16pm EDT
 
Egypt's leading religious authority warned of "civil war" and appealed for calm amid scattered violence on Friday, days before mass demonstrations that the opposition hopes can force the Islamist president to quit.
One man was shot dead and dozens wounded in Alexandria when protest marchers and Islamists clashed. A member of the ruling Muslim Brotherhood was also shot dead overnight in the city of Zagazig.
Friday's demonstrations were called in advance of a day of mass marching on Sunday, when President Mohamed Mursi's critics hope millions will hit the streets to demand new elections.
"Vigilance is required to ensure we do not slide into civil war," said clerics of Cairo's thousand-year-old Al-Azhar institute, one of the most influential centers of scholarship in the Muslim world.
In a statement broadly supportive of Mursi, it urged dialogue and blamed "criminal gangs" who besieged mosques for violence which the Brotherhood said has killed at least five supporters in a week.
The Brotherhood's political wing warned of "dire consequences that will pull the country into a violent spiral of anarchy". It held liberal leaders, including former U.N. diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei, personally responsible for inciting violence by hired "thugs" once employed by the ousted dictator, Hosni Mubarak.
Opposition leaders condemned the violence. The army, which has warned it could intervene if political leaders lose control, issued a statement saying it had deployed across the country to protect citizens and installations of national importance.
An Islamist rally in Cairo included calls to reconciliation.
In Alexandria, Egypt's second city, 70 people were wounded, many by birdshot, officials said. Nine policemen were also injured after hundreds fought around a Brotherhood office.
As several thousand anti-Mursi protesters marched along the Mediterranean seafront, a Reuters reporter saw about a dozen men throw rocks at guards outside the building. They responded. Bricks and bottles flew. Gunshots went off. Eventually, the office was trashed and documents burned, watched by jubilant youths chanting against the country's Islamist leaders.
Days of political violence in Nile Delta towns between Cairo and Alexandria continued. More than 40 were wounded on Friday in two towns. Overnight, the Brotherhood said, one man was killed and four were wounded in a raid on its office in Zagazig.
CAIRO CALM
There was no trouble during the afternoon in Cairo when tens of thousands of Islamists gathered round a mosque after weekly prayers to show support for Mursi. His opponents hope millions will turn out on Sunday to demand he step down, a year to the day since he was sworn in as Egypt's first freely chosen leader.
"I came to support the legitimate order," said Ahmed al-Maghrabi, 37, a shopkeeper from the Nile Delta city of Mansoura whose hand bore grazes from street fighting there this week. "I am with the elected president. He needs to see out his term."
There was a mostly festive atmosphere in the hot sunshine.
Some speakers reflected fear among Islamists that opponents aim to suppress them as Mubarak did. But there was also talk from the podium of the need for dialogue - a concern also of international powers worried by bitter polarization.
At one point, a song was played praising unity among "Muslims and Christians, Islamists and liberals" - a marked contrast to a similar gathering in the same spot last Friday when hardliners warned opponents against attacking Mursi.
Standing above pictures of those killed, Abdel Rahman al-Barr, a Brotherhood leader, said: "The only way forward is for us to sit down together ... To those who smash a hole in the ship of state, we will not respond by smashing another. We will work to repair the hole. We will not let the ship sink."
Some opposition gatherings were also under way, though small, perhaps due to mixed messages from leaders about whether to start the "June 30" protest movement early. A handful of protesters watched security men ringing the presidential palace, the focus for Sunday's Cairo rally. Mursi has moved elsewhere.
A few thousand milled around in the capital's Tahrir Square, cradle of the revolution. Some waved red cards reading "Out!", in preparation for the big demonstration against the president.
A protest of about 3,000 in Port Said, a bastion of anti-Islamist sentiment on the Suez Canal, passed off peacefully. Shipping in the international waterway was unaffected.
STRATEGIC
The army, which heeded mass protests in early 2011 to push aside Mubarak, has warned it will intervene again if there is violence and to defend the "will of the people". Both sides believe that means the military may support their positions.
The United States, which funds Egypt's army as it did under Mubarak, has urged compromise and respect for election results. Egypt's 84 million people, control of the Suez Canal and treaty with Israel all contribute to its global strategic importance.
U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon urged Egyptians to respect "universal principles of peaceful dialogue" and to strengthen their democracy by promoting an "inclusive environment".
The European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton urged all sides to keep protests peaceful, build trust and show a "spirit of dialogue and tolerance".
In Alexandria, opposition marchers said they feared the Brotherhood was usurping the revolution to entrench its power and Islamic law. Others had economic grievances, among them huge lines for fuel caused by supply problems and panic buying.
"I've nothing to do with politics, but with the state we're in now, even a stone would cry out," said 42-year-old accountant Mohamed Abdel Latif. "There are no services, we can't find diesel or gasoline. We elected Mursi, but this is enough.
"Let him make way for someone else who can fix it."
It is hard to gauge how many may turn out on Sunday but much of the population, even those sympathetic to Islamic ideas, are frustrated by economic slump and many blame the government.
Previous protest movements since the fall of Mubarak have failed to gather momentum, however, among a population anxious for stability and fearful of further economic hardship.

Obama's ties to Mandela loom over S. Africa visit

Jun 28, 2:28 PM EDT



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JOHANNESBURG  -- Inspired by Nelson Mandela's struggles in South Africa, a young Barack Obama joined campus protests in the U.S. against the racist rule that kept Mandela locked away in prison for nearly three decades.
Now a historic, barrier-breaking figure himself, President Obama arrived in South Africa Friday to find a country drastically transformed by Mandela's influence - and grappling with the beloved 94-year-old's mortality.
It was unclear whether Mandela's deteriorating health would allow Obama to make a hospital visit. The former South African leader is battling a recurring lung infection and is said to be in critical condition at a hospital in the South African capital of Pretoria.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One as he made his way to Johannesburg, Obama said he would gauge the situation after he arrived.
"I don't need a photo-op," he said. "And the last thing I want to do is to be in any way obtrusive at a time when the family is concerned about Nelson Mandela's condition."
Obama's visit to South Africa is seen as something of a tribute to the man who helped inspire his own political activism. The president will pay homage to Mandela at Robben Island, the prison where he spent 18 of his 27 years in prison. And with South Africa's ruling party, the African National Congress, facing questions about its effectiveness, Obama will urge the government and the South African people to live up to the democratic example set by their first black president.
"He's a personal hero, but I don't think I'm unique in that regard," Obama said during a news conference Thursday in Senegal, the first stop on his weeklong Africa trip. "I think he's a hero for the world. And if and when he passes from this place, one thing I think we'll all know is that his legacy is one that will linger on throughout the ages."
Obama and Mandela have met just once, a hastily arranged meeting in a Washington hotel room in 2005 when Obama was a U.S. senator. A photo of the meeting hangs in Obama's personal office at the White House, showing a smiling Mandela sitting on a chair, his legs outstretched, as the young senator reaches down to shake his hand. A copy of the photo also hangs in Mandela's office in Johannesburg.
Since then, the two have spoken occasionally by telephone, including after the 2008 election, when Mandela called Obama to congratulate him on his victory. The U.S. president called Mandela in 2010 after the South African leader's young granddaughter was killed in a car accident. Obama also wrote the introduction to Mandela's memoir, "Conversations With Myself."
Despite the two men's infrequent contact, people close to Obama say his one-on-one meeting with Mandela left a lasting impression.
"He is one of the few people who the president has respected and admired from afar who, when he met him, exceeded his expectations," said Valerie Jarrett, Obama's senior adviser and close friend.
Obama's own political rise has drawn inevitable comparisons to the South African leader. Both are Nobel Peace Prize winners and the first black men elected to lead their countries.
But their paths to power have been vastly different. While Mandela fought to end an oppressive government from the confines of a prison cell, Obama attended elite schools and rose through the U.S. political system before running for president.
"President Obama would believe that the challenges he has faced pale in comparison to those faced by President Mandela," Jarrett said.
Mandela had already shaped Obama's political beliefs well before their first encounter. As a student at Occidental College in Los Angeles, Obama joined protests against the school's investments during South Africa's apartheid era. In 1981, Obama focused his first public political speech on the topic.
"It's happening an ocean away," Obama said, according to a retelling of the story in his memoir "Dreams From My Father." "But it's a struggle that touches each and every one of us. Whether we know it or not. Whether we want it or not."
More than 30 years later, as he traveled through the African continent, Obama recalled the influence Mandela had had on him during that period of his life.
"I think at that time I didn't necessarily imagine that Nelson Mandela might be released," Obama said Thursday. But the president said he had read Mandela's writings and speeches and understood him to be a man who believed in "treating people equally and was willing to sacrifice his life for that belief."
Following his release from prison, Mandela was elected president in 1994 during South Africa's first all-races elections. He served just one term, focusing in large part on racial reconciliation in the post-apartheid era, and retreated from public life several years ago.
The most recent images of him depict a frail man apparently approaching the end of his life. While South Africans have long been loath to talk about Mandela's inevitable death, there is now a growing sense in the country that the time is near. Well-wishers have delivered flowers and messages of support to the Pretoria hospital where he is being treated, and prayer sessions have been held around the country.
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Thursday, June 27, 2013

The protests around the world: The march of protest

A wave of anger is sweeping the cities of the world. Politicians beware

A FAMILIAR face appeared in many of the protests taking place in scores of cities on three continents this week: a Guy Fawkes mask with a roguish smile and a pencil-thin moustache. The mask belongs to “V”, a character in a graphic novel from the 1980s who became the symbol for a group of computer hackers called Anonymous. His contempt for government resonates with people all over the world.
The protests have many different origins. In Brazil people rose up against bus fares, in Turkey against a building project. Indonesians have rejected higher fuel prices, Bulgarians the government’s cronyism. In the euro zone they march against austerity, and the Arab spring has become a perma-protest against pretty much everything. Each angry demonstration is angry in its own way.
Yet just as in 1848, 1968 and 1989, when people also found a collective voice, the demonstrators have much in common. Over the past few weeks, in one country after another, protesters have risen up with bewildering speed. They have been more active in democracies than dictatorships. They tend to be ordinary, middle-class people, not lobbies with lists of demands. Their mix of revelry and rage condemns the corruption, inefficiency and arrogance of the folk in charge.
Nobody can know how 2013 will change the world—if at all. In 1989 the Soviet empire teetered and fell. But Marx’s belief that 1848 was the first wave of a proletarian revolution was confounded by decades of flourishing capitalism and 1968, which felt so pleasurably radical at the time, did more to change sex than politics. Even now, though, the inchoate significance of 2013 is discernible. And for politicians who want to peddle the same old stuff, the news is not good.
Online and into the streets
The rhythm of protests has been accelerated by technology. V’s face turns up in both São Paulo and Istanbul because protest is organised through social networks, which spread information, encourage imitation and make causes fashionable (see article). Everyone with a smartphone spreads stories, though not always reliable ones. When the police set fire to the encampment in Gezi Park in Istanbul on May 31st, the event appeared instantly on Twitter. After Turks took to the streets to express their outrage, the flames were fanned by stories that protesters had died because of the police’s brutal treatment. Even though those first stories turned out to be wrong, it had already become the popular thing to demonstrate.
Protests are no longer organised by unions or other lobbies, as they once were. Some are initiated by small groups of purposeful people—like those who stood against the fare increases in São Paulo—but news gets about so fast that the organising core tends to get swamped. Spontaneity gives the protests an intoxicating sense of possibility. But, inevitably, the absence of organisation also blurs the agenda. Brazil’s fare protest became a condemnation of everything from corruption to public services (see article). In Bulgaria the government gave in to the crowd’s demand to ditch the newly appointed head of state security. But by then the crowd had stopped listening.
This ready supply of broad, fair-weather activism may vanish as fast as it appeared. That was the fate of the Occupy protesters, who pitched camp in Western cities in 2011. This time, however, the protests are fed by deep discontent. Egypt is suffering from the disastrous failure of government at every level. Protest there has become a substitute for opposition. In Europe the fight is over how to shrink the state. Each time the cuts reach a new target—most recently, Greece’s national broadcaster—they trigger another protest. Sometimes, as in the riots of young immigrants in Sweden’s suburbs in May and of British youths in 2011, entire groups feel excluded from the prosperity around them. Sweden has the highest ratio of youth unemployment to general unemployment in the OECD. Too many young Britons suffer from poor education and have prospects to match. In the emerging economies rapid real growth has led people to expect continuing improvements in their standard of living. This prosperity has paid for services and, in an unequal society like Brazil, narrowed the gap between rich and poor. But it is under threat. In Brazil GDP growth slowed from 7.5% in 2010 to only 0.9% last year. In Indonesia, where GDP is still below $5,000 a head, ordinary families will keenly feel the loss of fuel subsidies.
More potent still in the emerging world are the political expectations of a rapidly growing middle class (see article). At the end of last year young educated Indians took to the streets of several cities after the gang rape of a 23-year-old medical student, to protest at the lack of protection that the state affords women. Even bigger protests had swept the country in 2011, as the middle class rose up against the corruption that infests almost every encounter with government officials. In Turkey the number of students graduating from university has increased by 8% a year since 1995. The young middle class this has created chafes against the religious conservatism of the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who wants large families and controls on alcohol. The 40m Brazilians who clambered out of poverty in the past eight years are able for the first time to scrutinise the society that their taxes finance. They want decent public services, and get overpriced sports stadiums instead.
Trouble in Brussels and Beijing
How will this year of protest unfold? One dark conclusion is that democracy has become harder: allocating resources between competing interest groups is tougher if millions can turn out on the streets in days. That implies that the euro zone’s summer will surely get hotter. The continent’s politicians have got off lightly so far (the biggest demonstrations in Paris, for instance, were when “Frigide Barjot” led French Catholics in a bid to stop gay marriage). Yet social instability is twice as common when public spending falls by at least 5% of GDP as when it is growing. At some point European leaders must curb the chronic overspending on social welfare and grapple with the euro’s institutional weakness—and unrest will follow.
Happily, democracies are good at adapting. When politicians accept that the people expect better—and that votes lie in satisfying them—things can change. India’s anti-corruption protests did not lead to immediate change, but they raised graft up the national agenda, with the promise of gradual reform (see article). To her credit, Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, wants a national debate on renewing politics. This will be neither easy nor quick. But protest could yet improve democracy in emerging countries—and even eventually the EU.
Democrats may envy the ability of dictators to shut down demonstrations. China has succeeded in preventing its many local protests from cohering into a national movement. Saudi Arabia has bribed its dissidents to be quiet; Russia has bullied them with the threats of fines and prison. But in the long run, the autocrats may pay a higher price. Using force to drive people off the streets can weaken governments fatally, as Sultan Erdogan may yet find (see article); and as the Arab governments discovered two years ago, dictatorships lack the institutions through which to channel protesters’ anger. As they watch democracies struggle in 2013, the leaders in Beijing, Moscow and Riyadh should be feeling uncomfortable.

Gay marriage: Windsor’s knot

The Supreme Court strikes two blows for gay marriage

by Biodun Iginla,  BBC News and The Economist

COMMITTED souls often pitch tents on city streets and sleep rough overnight to be first in line for a Lady Gaga concert. You would not expect legal proceedings stemming from a tax dispute to generate such excitement. But people began lining up outside the Supreme Court on the evening of June 25th to hear its rulings on gay marriage the next day.
One case, Hollingsworth v Perry, considered Proposition 8, a ballot initiative passed in California in 2008 that defined marriage in that state as a union between one man and one woman. The other, United States v Windsor, concerned the Defence of Marriage Act (DOMA) of 1996, which barred the federal government from recognising gay nuptials. The Obama administration declined to defend DOMA; Californian officials refused to fight a state-court ruling striking down Proposition 8. That left Proposition 8’s defence to its original sponsors, led by Dennis Hollingsworth, a former state senator from San Diego, and DOMA’s to House Republicans.
In a 5-4 ruling, the court found DOMA unconstitutional. The case was brought by Edith Windsor, who married her partner Thea Spyer in 2007, after 44 years together. Though they married in Canada they lived in New York, which allows same-sex marriage. When Ms Spyer died in 2009, she left her estate to Ms Windsor. Had Ms Spyer been Mr Spyer, Ms Windsor would have inherited the lot tax-free. But because DOMA barred the federal taxman from recognising their marriage, Ms Windsor was whacked with $363,053 in estate taxes.
She sued, arguing that DOMA violated fifth-amendment principles of equal protection under the law. The court’s four liberal jurists, along with Anthony Kennedy, the court’s swing voter, agreed. “DOMA seeks to injure the very class New York seeks to protect,” Mr Kennedy wrote, and “a bare congressional desire to harm a politically unpopular class” cannot justify such treatment. The ruling also affirmed that states may define and regulate marriage as they see fit. DOMA, the justices complained, created “two contradictory marriage regimes within the same state” (or as Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal justice, quipped during oral arguments, it created “two kinds of marriage; the full marriage, and then this sort of skim-milk marriage”).
Dissenting, Antonin Scalia chastised the majority for ignoring the will of Congress, though he had been happy to do the same a day earlier, when he voted to invalidate part of the Voting Rights Act, which Congress had re-authorised in 2006 (see article).
The repeal of DOMA means that gay couples in states that recognise their marriages will have equal access to more than 1,100 federal benefits—and burdens—that apply to other married couples. For a start, Ms Windsor will get back her $363,053.
In the Proposition 8 case, the court ruled 5-4 that Mr Hollingsworth lacked standing to bring a case. State officials did not defend Proposition 8 when a California district court found it unconstitutional in 2010 and ordered officials not to enforce it. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said that the Supreme Court has “never before upheld the standing of a private party to defend…a state statute when state officials have chosen not to. We decline to do so for the first time here.”
This decision leaves the California court’s ruling in place, which counts as a victory of sorts for gay-rights supporters. It clears the way for same-sex marriage in America’s most populous state.
Still, some hoped the Supreme Court would conclude, like the district court, that same-sex marriage bans violate the 14th amendment’s equal-protection clause. Such a ruling would have made gay marriage legal throughout America, just as Roe v Wade in 1973 made abortion legal nationwide despite the objection of many states.
But that could have provoked a backlash, just as Roe did. The court’s narrow, technical ruling keeps the fight for gay marriage at the state level, where supporters have been winning (see chart). When California’s voters approved Proposition 8 in 2008, gay marriage was legal in just two states: California and Massachusetts. Today it is legal in 13, plus the District of Columbia, with more to come.