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JERUSALEM -- With a resounding election victory last
month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to have an easy
path toward quickly establishing a coalition government with his
traditional nationalist, religious and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies.
But
after weeks of negotiations with potential partners, Netanyahu is
finding the task harder than expected and is flirting with the idea of
reaching out to his main dovish rivals to form a unity government. As he
decides which path to take, he will seek an additional two-week
extension to put his coalition together.
Which
way Netanyahu goes will have broad implications. If he sides with the
hard-line allies that he often calls his "natural" partners, Netanyahu
will have a solid parliamentary majority of like-minded parties that
could avoid much of the infighting that plagued the outgoing government
and provide some welcome political stability at home.
But
such a coalition - averse to peace moves with the Palestinians and in
favor of expanded settlement construction in the West Bank - would
quickly find itself on a collision course with the international
community at a time when Netanyahu is already feuding with his allies
over the moribund peace process and a nuclear deal with Iran that he
loathes. A unity government that includes his leftist rivals would help
blunt that looming international isolation.
Throughout
the heated campaign, Netanyahu ruled out the possibility of joining
forces with Isaac Herzog and his center-left Zionist Union and vowed to
rule from the right.
Election results gave his
Likud Party 30 seats and secured him a potential 67-seat majority of
the 120-seat Knesset along with his traditional allies. In negotiations
however, these allies have made demands to head powerful government
ministries, and an initial four-week window to form a new government is
now set to expire.
On Monday, he is scheduled
to meet the largely ceremonial president, Reuven Rivlin, and seek a
two-week extension. Under Israeli election rules, if he fails to form a
coalition during that time Rivlin can then assign someone else the task
of doing so.
Few expect it to come to that, and the 67-seat right-wing government seems to be the most likely outcome.
Netanyahu
looks close to finalizing deals with two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas
and Yahadut Hatorah, who are seeking ministries and parliamentary
committees with large budgets catering to their constituents. He also
appears to be close to a deal with the centrist, economics-focused
Kulanu party.
But large gaps remain with the
two other pieces needed to complete the puzzle, the nationalist Jewish
Home and Yisrael Beiteinu parties, both of whom are led by long-time
Netanyahu associates who have a tumultuous relationship with the boss.
Despite
disappointing election results, both parties are demanding top Cabinet
posts and major influence that are disproportionate to their numbers.
Netanyahu has yet to budge and has signaled he may leave them out.
Tsahi
Hanegbi, the deputy foreign minister from Netanyahu's Likud Party, said
the prospect of Herzog joining the coalition was only becoming a
possibility due to the hard-ball approach of the right-wing parties.
"It
is rising only as an extreme scenario whose chances of coming true are a
result of the Jewish Home or Yisrael Beitenu, either both of them or
one of them, stubbornly refusing to show flexibility," he told Israel's
Army Radio Sunday.
While the threat may be a
pressure tactic, there are large issues at stake. Despite his rhetoric,
aides acknowledge that Netanyahu is concerned about clashes with his
allies in the U.S. and western Europe.
Increased
settlement construction, a prolonged absence of Palestinian peace talks
and nationalist legislation that undermines Israel's democratic nature
would surely draw a strong rebuke and perhaps even calls for sanctions
and boycotts. With his relations with President Barack Obama at a low
point following clashes over Mideast peace and the Iranian nuclear
talks, there is a real fear that Israel's top ally may rescind its
automatic protection of Israel at the United Nations and other
international bodies.
Netanyahu has partnered with his adversaries in the past to shield himself from similar fallout.
In
2009, he added Labor Party leader Ehud Barak as his defense minister
and point man to the West. And in his last government, he brought in
dovish ex-foreign minister Tzipi Livni to be his chief peace negotiator.
Herzog
is under heavy pressure from his followers not to offer Netanyahu that
political cover again. Both men have denied reports of a secret meeting.
Over the weekend, Herzog vowed to go to the opposition.
"Sitting
in the opposition is not a default choice but a preference," he said.
"Our place is in the opposition. We will replace the Likud government."
But
Herzog's Labor Party, the main partner in the Zionist Union, has a long
history of ousting its defeated leaders, so Herzog also may be tempted
to jump at a chance to gain some influence and job security - most
likely as Netanyahu's foreign minister. Herzog is the seventh leader of
the party since it last won a national election in 1999.
Herzog's
only hint of common ground with Netanyahu was a position paper issued
by his party that backed Netanyahu's opposition to the recent U.S.-led
framework nuclear deal with Iran. On this crucial matter, it said "there
is no coalition or opposition" in Israel.
So
far Herzog's party rank-and-file seems to oppose joining Netanyahu and
appears eager to watch a hard-line government fail. But there are also
growing voices in Israel saying that Herzog's Zionist Union does not
have the luxury to make that kind of cold political calculation.
"Its
presence in the coalition is critical to preserving Israel as a liberal
democracy," liberal columnist Carlo Strenger wrote in the Haaretz
daily. "Ultimately, the idea of staying in the opposition is based on a
deep illusion: It is that the liberal center-left is likely to regain
power in the foreseeable future, and that Israel's electorate just has
to realize how destructive the political right's policies are."
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