AFTER the most volatile and closely run campaign in recent history, the French first-round vote has yielded an extraordinary outcome, putting two party outsiders into the final round of the country’s presidential election. According to estimates by Ipsos, a pollster, for France 2 Télévisions based on a sample of polling-station results, Emmanuel Macron, a pro-European centrist independent, came first with 23.7%. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front (FN) followed with 21.9%. The pair will go through to a run-off vote on May 7th.
This result means that for the first time in modern French history, the second round will not include a candidate from either of the two political families—the Socialists and the Republicans—that have held the presidency since the Fifth Republic was established by Charles de Gaulle in 1958. François Fillon, a former prime minister and the Republicans’ beleaguered candidate, came third, with 19.7% of the vote, closely trailed by the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 19.2%, who failed to sustain a late surge during the closing weeks of the campaign.
The selection of Ms Le Pen and Mr Macron for the run-off, on a high turnout of around 80%, is remarkable in several respects. In effect, it turns the final round of the election into a direct contest between two rival world views. Campaigning under the slogan “In the name of the people”, Ms Le Pen calls herself a “patriot” and spreads an essentially nationalist message. She vows to hold a referendum on taking France out of the European Union, and thus the euro; to introduce protectionist trade barriers; to tax firms that hire foreigners; to strengthen ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia; to close the borders to immigration; and to strip jihadist suspects with dual citizenship of their French nationality. By contrast Mr Macron, who set up his party, En Marche! (On the Move!), only a year ago, advocates keeping France central to the liberal Western order. A former Socialist economy minister, he is a zealous pro-European who wants to reinforce ties with Germany, to keep France part of the global trading system, to build cross-party support between left and right in order to “unblock” the French economy, and to support the transatlantic alliance. Polls taken before first-round voting consistently suggested that he would beat Ms Le Pen by some 20 points in a head-to-head contest. Although no surprise can be ruled out, voters from the centre-right and far left are expected to rally to him, whatever their reservations, in order to keep her out.
This first-round result could also presage the break-up of the French party system. It is a measure of the anti-establishment mood that neither Ms Le Pen nor Mr Macron belong to a mainstream, established party. The FN was founded in 1972 by Ms Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, but has been confined for decades to the xenophobic fringes of political life. When Mr Le Pen shocked France and made it into the final of the presidential election in 2002, he was roundly beaten by Jacques Chirac, a Gaullist, who got 82% of the vote in the run off. The FN currently has only two deputies in the National Assembly, and mayors in only a dozen of the country’s 36,000 communes. That Ms Le Pen is in a position potentially to double her father’s result is a reflection of how far she has turned the FN into a fixed feature of the French party system, and brought its ideas into the mainstream. Even if she loses the presidency, the FN has wielded influence over this campaign in a way that far outweighs its electoral representation.
As for the amiable Mr Macron, he has already pulled off a historic feat. Three years ago, the 39-year-old former investment banker and adviser to the Socialist president, François Hollande was unknown to the general public. Last summer he was still considered an outsider whose hopes of running for president defied all French rules about the way candidacies are slow-cooked over the years. But his political gamble and his campaign team’s tireless door-knocking and leaflet-stuffing have paid off. En Marche! boasts more than twice as many members as the decades-old Socialist Party. Mr Macron now goes into the second round as the firm favourite.
As Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen now prepare for a tough two-week campaign, France could be in for a deep political realignment. Disappointed centre-left deputies from the Socialist camp, whose candidate, Benoît Hamon, secured a miserable 6.2% of the vote and who fear for their parliamentary seats, could well knock on Mr Macron’s door ahead of legislative elections in June. The En Marche! team says that many Socialists are ready to defect. On the right, the Republicans had expected this election to belong to them, after five years under the unpopular Mr Hollande. Some of its deputies too will be tempted to join Mr Macron. Dominique de Villepin, a former prime minister (though not a deputy), has already pledged his support. Within the party, there will be recriminations and despondency as it decides how to pick itself up, and whether it can survive in its current form.
On May 7th, France faces a choice that will determine not only its future but that of the EU. It will become the most crucial test case in Europe for whether a liberal Western democracy can defy the trend and face down nationalist populism. The political alternatives on offer in this run-off could scarcely differ more. But the chances are that France's next president will be a man with a dream and a gamble, who is now as well-placed as possible to become the next, and youngest-ever, president of the Fifth Republic.
No comments:
Post a Comment