Biodun Iginla, BBC News

Biodun Iginla, BBC News
Showing posts with label Social Democrats (SPD). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Social Democrats (SPD). Show all posts

Monday, January 15, 2018

Merkel could join Macron in Davos for epic clash with Trump

January 15, 2018  22H:00  GMT/UTC/ZULU TIME
BERLIN - German Chancellor Angela Merkel is considering joining French President Emmanuel Macron at the World Economic Forum in Davos next week in what could turn into an epic clash of competing world views with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Merkel, who has been struggling to put together a government since a German election in September, had been expected to skip the annual gathering of leaders, CEOs, bankers and celebrities in the Swiss Alps for a third straight year.
But after clinching a preliminary coalition agreement with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) on Friday, German officials said Merkel could travel to Davos after all, possibly setting up a major confrontation with Trump, who is expected to speak on the final day of the forum.
An appearance would signal Merkel’s return to the world stage after months of political limbo in which she has avoided the limelight and been dismissed by some in the German and international media as a spent force.
It would also allow her and Macron, who is scheduled to speak at the forum on Jan. 24, two days before Trump, to reaffirm their commitment to reforming the European Union after Britain’s decision to leave, and to defend liberal democratic values in the face of Trump’s “America First” policies.
Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert was coy last week when asked whether she might attend the WEF, which will run from Jan. 23-26 under the banner “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World” and will attract some 60 heads of state and government.
But after clinching a preliminary deal with the SPD, the chances that she could attend appear to have risen. German officials said no final decision had been taken and that Merkel may wait for the outcome of an SPD congress in Bonn next Sunday - where the party will formally decide whether to enter coalition talks with her conservatives - before committing.
Officials at the WEF said they believed Merkel was still considering whether to attend. If she does, it is unlikely that she or Macron would overlap with Trump, who is expected to arrive on the afternoon of Jan. 25.
This year’s forum will be opened by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Jan. 23. Britain’s Theresa May, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu are also expected, as well as celebrities such as actress Cate Blanchett and musician Elton John.
Last year’s gathering took place in the week leading up to Trump’s inauguration and was headlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who signaled his readiness to fill the vacuum in global leadership created by America’s shift inward.

UNITED IN ANTIPATHY

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel give a joint news conference after the EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, December 15, 2017. REUTERS/Eric Vidal
Since then, Trump has pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade deal with Asian countries, announced a withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and threatened to torpedo an agreement between Western powers and Iran aimed at curbing its nuclear program.
He has stirred fears of conflict with North Korea by engaging in an escalating war of words with its leader Kim Jong Un. Last week, he stirred international outrage by referring to Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries”, according to members of Congress who attended a meeting in the White House.
On Saturday, some 500 demonstrators marched in the Swiss capital Bern to protest against Trump’s plans to attend the WEF.
Slideshow (2 Images)
“There are very few things in the world that unite countries as much as their antipathy towards Trump and what he is doing,” said Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, and a regular at Davos.
“In the United States he may have 40 percent who approve of what he’s doing. In the Davos crowd it is closer to 5 percent.”
The visit by Trump will be the first by a U.S. president since Bill Clinton in 2000. He will be accompanied by a large delegation that is expected to include his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Merkel has had a frosty relationship with Trump, who accused her during his campaign for the presidency of “ruining Germany” by allowing hundreds of thousands of refugees, many fleeing war in the Middle East, into the country in 2015.
She was hailed in some Western media as the last defender of liberal democratic values after Trump’s victory. Since then, the election of Macron, a pro-European centrist who, like Merkel, supports free trade and the global rules-based order, has given her a powerful ally in the confrontation with Trump.
Macron is slated to speak for 45 minutes in the evening of Jan. 24 in Davos, a ski resort in eastern Switzerland.
“My instinct tells me that Macron will go big,” said Robin Niblett, director of the Chatham House think tank in London. “He won’t just talk about Europe. He will try to take up the mantle of the free world under Europe’s wing.”
If he is joined by Merkel, who has made seven appearances at the WEF since becoming chancellor in 2005, that message may resonate even louder.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

The splintering of German politics--analysis


by Isabelle Roussel and Biodun Iginla, News Analysts, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Berlin
How to break the deadlock in Berlin

Political uncertainty is bad for Germany and Europe. Germans should vote again
IN THE churn of European politics, with America seemingly pulling out and Russia pushing in, many hoped that Germany would rise up. They looked to Angela Merkel, its chancellor, to resist populism. They dreamed that the Franco-German partnership, energised by France’s new president, Emmanuel Macron, could strengthen the enfeebled European Union—just as soon, of course, as Mrs Merkel got her fourth poll victory out of the way. German voters thought otherwise.
In the election on September 24th they punished Mrs Merkel’s grand coalition of Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) . These “GroKo” parties collectively lost almost 14% of the vote, most of that going to right-of-centre parties, including the populist Alternative for Germany. The chancellor tried to negotiate a three-way coalition of her CDU/CSU, the revived pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens. Though this would have had many advantages, bargaining with both left and right was always going to be tricky, and the talks broke down on November 19th, when the FDP walked out (see article).

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Mrs Merkel is gravely weakened. She has consistently been reluctant to take on a bigger role in the world. Today she faces an altogether different problem—of political fragmentation and deadlock—that is familiar to other countries, but not to post-war Germany. The protracted uncertainty that is now likely will be bad for Mrs Merkel, for Germany and for Europe.
Mrs Merkel faces three options, none of them palatable. The first is to form a minority government either with the FDP, or with the Greens (or, just possibly, alone). Germany’s constitution (and consensual traditions) would give such a government some protection from no-confidence votes. Yet, though other countries have minority governments, modern Germany has no federal experience of them. Mrs Merkel herself batted away the idea that such a beast could give Germany the stable government it needs. The FDP leader, Christian Lindner, says he is not interested either. A minority government is highly improbable—unless a deal with the Greens gives Mrs Merkel the option of relying on case-by-case support from the SPD.
More likely, therefore, is the option of reviving the GroKo with the SPD. It has governed Germany pretty well since 2013. The SPD supports strengthening the euro zone, for instance by giving more powers to its European Stability Mechanism, so a grand coalition could work closely with Mr Macron.
Although this may be Mrs Merkel’s preferred option, it too has problems. The SPD’s leader, Martin Schulz, has ruled the GroKo out, though he is now under pressure from some in his party, including Germany’s president, to change his mind. Being in government with Mrs Merkel hurt the SPD, pushing its share of the vote down to its lowest-ever level. The party needs a stint in opposition to revive itself. Most of all, a GroKo might be seen by Germans as reheating the stale dish that they rejected, adding yet again to the appeal of the political extremes.
That leaves a new election, the option Mrs Merkel should pursue. True, there are risks. A vote cannot happen soon: Germany’s constitution, mindful of the 20 governments and nine elections in the 14 Weimar years, deliberately makes it hard to call one early. Add the time needed for more coalition-building, and Germany—and the EU—could be without a new government in Berlin until May or June. There is no guarantee that the result, in the messy seven-party political environment of today’s Germany, will be any more clear-cut than the last.
Vote, vote, vote
An election would, however, offer the advantage of allowing debate over important issues, such as the future of the European project, that the parties avoided in the previous campaign. Rich and stable, Germany need not fear repeated elections. But none of this looks good for Mrs Merkel. She says she would run again if there were another vote, and she is unlikely to face a leadership challenge just now. But a poor election result, followed by the failure of the coalition talks, has given her an air of precariousness. Whatever option she chooses, she is about to enter the final act of her political career.
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Deadlock in Berlin"

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Saturday, November 19, 2016

Angela Merkel will announce bid for fourth term Sunday



by Isabelle Roussel and Biodun Iginla, France24, Berlin

    © AFP/File / by Deborah Cole | Chancellor Angela Merkel is popular among Germans, who see her as a straight-shooter and a safe pair of hands in tumultuous times

    BERLIN - 
    German Chancellor Angela Merkel was expected to announce her bid for re-election Sunday in a move likely to be welcomed in many capitals as a sign of stability following shock poll triumphs for Brexit and Donald Trump.
    After months of feverish speculation about her plans, Merkel is due to hold a news conference at 1800 GMT during a meeting of her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and say she will seek a fourth term in the 2017 elections.
    Merkel, 62, has governed Europe's top economic power, which does not have term limits, since 2005.
    Another full four-year term, which pollsters say is likely, would tie the post-war record set by her mentor Helmut Kohl, who presided over the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.
    The head of the German Council on Foreign Relations, Daniela Schwarzer, said Merkel's sense of duty had likely shaped her decision.
    "Observing the potential repercussions of Trump's election victory on Europe, I think that the task is even bigger now than it was before the American election and so I would think that she might feel that the job isn't quite done," she told AFP.
    "There's a need to continue leading Europe."
    - Back into her arms -
    Merkel, a pastor's daughter who grew up in communist East Germany, is popular among Germans, who see her as a straight-shooter and a safe pair of hands in tumultuous times.
    But her decision to let in more than one million asylum seekers over the last two years has dented her support.
    It also revived the fortunes of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which has harnessed widespread anxiety about migration.
    However observers said the recent seismic shifts in global politics could drive traditionally risk-adverse German voters back into her arms.
    "The society's need for predictability and stability could become so overpowering in the 2017 election year that even the creeping erosion of Merkel's chancellorship won't compromise her success at the polls in the end," news weekly Die Zeit said.
    As US President Barack Obama exits the stage, many observers say Merkel's importance as a defender of Western values will only continue to grow, with some calling her the new "leader of the free world".
    While the globe braces for potentially radical changes in US leadership under Trump, Britain is wrestling with the fallout from its June vote backing withdrawal from the EU and France is facing polls in May that could see far-right candidate Marine Le Pen snatch victory.
    In a further sign of her relative strength, Merkel gathered Obama and the leaders of Britain, France, Spain and Italy at her chancellery Friday for talks on the fight against terrorism, climate change and the strategic threat posed by Russia.
    - Obama endorsement -
    Merkel has long refused to be drawn on her plans for the general election, expected in September or October 2017, saying only that she would make the announcement "at the appropriate time".
    She repeated the line with a smile at a bittersweet farewell news conference in Berlin Thursday with Obama, who praised her as an "outstanding partner" and urged Germans to "appreciate" her.
    "It's up to her whether she wants to stand again... but if I were here and I were German and I had a vote, I might support her," he said.
    Misgivings about Merkel's refugee policy were blamed for a string of state election defeats for the CDU over the last 18 months, and sparked an open revolt by its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which demanded a strict upper limit on incoming asylum-seekers.
    A poll released Friday showed that Merkel's conservatives would draw 32 percent of the vote if the election were held this weekend, down 10 points from the last national election in 2013.
    The Social Democrats (SPD), junior partners in Merkel's right-left ruling coalition, were a distant second with 23 percent, followed by the opposition Greens with 13 percent.
    The AfD scored 12 percent, according to independent opinion research institute Infratest dimap.
    It is still unclear who will carry the SPD's banner into the race, with party leader Sigmar Gabriel potentially facing a challenge from European Parliament President Martin Schulz.